Weather Whiplash: Dramatic temperature swings this week

Buckle up Minnesota. We’re about to take a ride on the November temperatures roller coaster this Thanksgiving week. The good weather news? Even as temperatures swing wildly up and down I don’t see any major travel issues for Thanksgiving travel across the Upper Midwest.

Weather gratitude is the attitude this week.

Mild Monday

Through Sunday the Twin Cities has not hit 50 degrees in November. That likely changes Monday afternoon as milder and occasionally frisky southerly breezes boost temperatures into the 50s across the southwest half of Minnesota. I could see a few bank thermometers flashing 52 or higher in the Twin Cities Monday.

Note the dramatic contrast in air masses across the Upper Midwest Monday.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Cold bast tonight

A potent cold front sails south from Canada tonight. The air mass behind the front is a good 20 to 30 degrees colder. Monday’s October breeze gives way to December chill levels Tuesday and Wednesday.

Black isobars driving stiff northwest flow crossing dashed blue lines below show “cold advection” Tuesday.

NOAA GFS model, via tropical tidbits

Ups and downs

Or as The Dude would say,  strikes and gutters. Temperatures swing wildly between Octoberish 50s and Decemberesque 20s and 30s. There no such things as November normal on the temperature maps this week.

Thanksgiving looks pleasant with a high near 40 in the metro. We make the 50s in the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota Monday and on Black Friday. Grab the parka in between.

NOAA forecast temperatures for Minneapolis, via Weather Bell

Longer range: More mild than wild?

The medium-range forecast maps now peek into early December. I’m watching for that first big snow. So far it’s not in sight. In fact it looks like another shot of mild air could visit Minnesota next week. The upper air maps hint at another mild Pacific push next week. But December, and the start of meteorological winter, is near. Minnesota weather can change in a Manhattan minute.

NOAA

Both the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts models suggest 40s to near 50 degrees next week in the Twin Cities.

NOAA’s Global Forecast System model hints at 40s again as we move into early December.

NOAA, GFS via Meteostar

And so far, no big snow in sight. Yet.

Stay tuned.