Novembrrrr chill; temps recover this weekend

You know that you’re in for a chilly day when the high temperature happens several hours before you wake up.

The temp at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport was 30 degrees shortly after midnight, and that is likely to be our high for Thursday.

We aren’t likely to rise above the lower 20s this afternoon in the Twin Cities and most of southern Minnesota, while northern and central Minnesota see teens.

The coldest Nov. 9 high temp in Twin Cities weather records is 22 degrees, set back in 1945. There was 1 inch of snow on the ground that day.

Wear you warm coat today, since it’ll be windy. Wind chill temps will be below zero through much of today in northern Minnesota and parts of central Minnesota.

Single digit wind chills are expected most of this Thursday in southern Minnesota.

Temperature trends

Highs Friday will be in the 20s over much of Minnesota:

A few spots in the far north might only see highs in the upper teens.

On Saturday, 30s will be common, with some lower 40s in the south:

Sunday will feature mostly 30s, with upper 20s northwest:

Some spots in the Twin Cities metro area could touch 40 on Sunday. Metro area highs are expected to be mainly in the 40s next week.

Lake effect snow

Cold northwesterly winds moving over relatively warm lakes will lead to lake effect snow in parts of northern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin this Thursday:

National Weather Service, Duluth

The National Weather Service has winter weather advisories until 3 p.m. Thursday for parts of northern Minnesota:

NWS Duluth

Details of the advisory:

Winter Weather Advisory
URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Duluth MN
345 AM CST Thu Nov 9 2017

…ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THIS
EVENING…

.The coldest air yet this season will continue to progress through
the Northland today. The large lakes across the region are still
relatively warm, including Lake Superior, Lake of the Woods, Rainy
Lake, and Lake Kabetogama. The dramatic temperature differences
between the lakes and the Arctic air will result in significant
lake effect snow showers downwind of these lakes through today.
The heaviest snowfall, up to around 10 inches, is expected
downwind of Lake Superior along and near the higher terrain of the
Gogebic Range in Iron County, Wisconsin. Other parts of northern
Wisconsin near Lake Superior, and parts of north-central Minnesota
near the Canadian border, could get several inches of snow.
Expect periods of difficult travel conditions with this snow,
especially for the morning commute.

MNZ010-011-092100-
/O.EXT.KDLH.WW.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-171109T2100Z/
Koochiching-North St. Louis-
Including the cities of International Falls and Ely
345 AM CST Thu Nov 9 2017

…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON…

* WHAT…Lake effect snow expected through today. Plan on slippery
road conditions, including during the morning commute. Total
snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches across parts of northern
Koochiching county and the northwestern corner of St. Louis
county. There could be isolated amounts up to 6 inches in those
areas.

* WHERE…Koochiching and North St. Louis County.

* WHEN…Now through 4 PM today.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…Be prepared for reduced visibilities at
times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.
The latest road conditions for Minnesota can be obtained by
calling 511 in state, or 1-800-542-0220. For Wisconsin, call
511 in state, or 1-866-511-9472

In parts of northwestern Wisconsin, the advisory continues to 6 p.m. this Thursday.

Friday snow chance

Another batch of snow is expected to move across northern and central Minnesota Friday evening into Friday night and Saturday.

Snow showers could begin in northwestern Minnesota Friday afternoon.

It looks like southern Minnesota and the Twin Cities metro area could see scattered snow showers Friday night and early Saturday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential snow pattern Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon:

NOAA NAM simulated radar from noon Friday through Saturday afternoon, via tropicaltidbits

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the strength of the signal that returns to the radar, not to the amount of snow.

Scattered rain showers could mix with the scattered snow showers in southern Minnesota on Saturday.

Corn harvest lags

The crop progress report from the United States Department of Agriculture, for the week ending Nov. 5, indicates:

Despite cold temperatures and accumulated snow, Minnesota farmers were able to harvest 22 percent of the statewide corn acreage during the week ending November 5, 2017, according to USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service

The corn harvest is slower than normal this year, according to the USDA:

Corn for grain harvest advanced 22 percentage points, but remained 12 days behind the 5-year average, bringing the total harvest to 60 percent complete.

There is good news regarding soil moisture around most of Minnesota:

Topsoil moisture supplies rated 0 percent very short, 2 percent short, 83 percent adequate and 15 percent surplus. Subsoil moisture supplies rated 1 percent very short, 5 percent short, 82 percent adequate and 12 percent surplus.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.