Near record warmth Monday; upside down November continues
It's supposed to be getting colder this time of year, not warmer.
Temperatures surge again Monday across Minnesota. Bank thermometers flash 60s in southwest Minnesota. The 60-degree line could nudge into the Twin Cities if we get enough sunny breaks in the cirrus cloud deck. That's about 25 degrees warmer than average for Nov. 27.
The average high at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport for Nov. 27? Just 34 degrees. The record is 64 degrees.
'Cold' front Tuesday
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More like a still above average front. Colder northwest winds blow Tuesday. But the air mass behind the front is still a good 10 degrees warmer than average. That means highs in the 40s the rest of this week in the Twin Cities, with 30s in northern Minnesota.
No sign of Old Man Winter in the next week.
You have to look pretty far north to find significantly cold air right now.
Mild into next week?
December, and the start of meteorological winter, arrive Friday. But the longer range maps continue to hint at mild air into the first part of next week. The upper air maps suggest continues mild Pacific flow into at least next Monday.
Colder after Dec. 5?
The overall pattern may change by the middle of next week. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Forecast System continues to suggest a temperature cliff as next week progresses.
From highs in the 50s into the teens and 20s next week? I'll believe that when I see it, but it's going to happen eventually.
Here's NOAA's 16-day GFS guidance:
Searching for snow
Many Minnesotans are looking for snow this time of year. So far snow cover is running below seasonal averages. Lawns and fields are bare across most of Minnesota. If you want snow to play in head north. Way north.
Monday's mild temperatures take another bite out of the southern edge of the snow zone in northern Minnesota.
Right now I still don't see any big snow in sight for most of Minnesota through early next week.
With no snow in the forecast this week, this will be the least snowy November in the Twin Cities in eight years.
Upside down November
Our wintry air mass in early November made it feel like December. Temperatures were running a good 8 degrees colder than average at one point during the first two weeks of November.
The switch flipped into October mode lately. Through Sunday the average monthly temperature is running just -1.8 degrees vs. average at MSP Airport. With four more mild days this week, November is running a race to see if it can finish colder than average. It's going to be a close call.
Stay tuned.