Mild temps through Sunday; sharply colder next week

We've made quite a comeback this November.

Through Wednesday, our average temperature for this month is just one-tenth of a degree below normal in the Twin Cities:

Today's mild temps will allow us to finish the month warmer than normal.

We all remember that we had a very cold start to November.

When you look at our average daily temp, which factors in the daily high and low temp, the Twin Cities metro area was colder than normal on the first 12 days of November:

Negative numbers in the “DEP” column show the number of degrees that the average daily temp was below normal on a given day.

Positive numbers indicate warmer than normal days.

Today will be our eighth consecutive warmer than normal day in the Twin Cities.

Temperature trends

Our average high temp is now only 33 degrees in the Twin Cities metro area.

Thursday and Friday high temps will be mostly in the 40s across Minnesota, with some 30s in the far north.

A few spots in southern Minnesota could touch 50 on Friday.

Similar highs are expected on Saturday and Sunday, with some spots in the south reaching the lower 50s.

Here are Saturday's projected highs:

Sunday's high temps could look like this:

M

Twin Cities highs are expected to reach the lower 40s on Monday, but falling temps are possible in the afternoon. Tuesday's high is expected to be in the lower 30s, followed by highs in the 20s next Wednesday and Thursday.

Dry stretch

We've only seen six-tenths of an inch of snow this November at MSP airport, which is well below our 30 year average November snow total of 9.3 inches in the Twin Cities.

Precipitation (rain plus the water content of snow) is running 1.33 inches below normal.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's North American Mesoscale forecast model isn't showing any precipitation for the Twin Cities today, Friday or Saturday:

Northeastern Minnesota could see some rain/snow showers Friday night.

White Christmas?

Meteorological winter (the three coldest months of the year) begins tomorrow.

The Twin Cities metro area won't have any snow on the ground on December 1.

Does that have any bearing on whether we will have a White Christmas?

Probably not.

Meteorologists define a White Christmas as having a snow depth of one inch or more on the morning of December 25.

I looked at the past 12 years of December 1 and December 25 snow depths (inches) in the Twin Cities:

            December 1        December 25  

2016             0                           4 inches

2015             4                           trace

2014             2                            0

2013             0                            9

2012             0                            1

2011           trace                       trace

2010             1                            19

2009             0                           10

2008             1                             8

2007             0                            6

2006             0                          trace

2005             2                            3

These snow depths are from NOAA's data for Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport.

It's interesting that seven of the past twelve December 1 snow depths were zero or a trace in the Twin Cities, but we had a White Christmas in five of those 7 years.

In 2015 and 2014 we did have some snow cover in the Twin Cities on December 1, but we didn't end up with a White Christmas.

Programming note:

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.