Winter Storm Watch: Plowable north, metro accumulation possible
Here we go.
Winter storm watches expanded in coverage today. The NWS Duluth office added most of northern Minnesota to the watch zone. Winter storm watches now run from eastern North Dakota through northern Minnesota.
Including the cities of International Falls, Ely, Isabella,
and Hibbing
1100 AM CDT Wed Oct 25 2017
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...
* WHAT...Potential for snow accumulations between 4 and 8 inches.
The highest accumulations are expected near the Canadian border,
and blowing and drifting is possible in open areas and near
lakes. The snow may also be accompanied by wind gusts up to 30
mph.
* WHERE...Koochiching, North St. Louis, Northern Cook/Northern
Lake and Central St. Louis County.
* WHEN...From Thursday afternoon through Friday evening.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Significant reductions in visibility are
possible.
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Potent Alberta Clipper
Our inbound system is impressive on the weather maps. The low pressure core is winding up a tightly packed web of isobars by Friday as it sails southeast through Minnesota. Tightly packed isobars (lines of equal pressure) means this system will be a significant wind producer. NOAA's NAM 3 km resolution model captures the essence of the inbound low.
Still model differences
How much snow in my backyard? That depends on which model solution you buy into. There are still big differences that could produce huge snowfall scenario differences for the Twin Cities.
Two elements of this system suggest much higher confidence levels.
The heaviest snow zone likely lays out in the Red River Valley through northern Minnesota.
2. High winds gusting over 50 mph at times are likely in the same regions.
Twin Cities: Major model differences
The Euro and Canadian models still favor a more westward track, meaning more rain than snow for the Twin Cities. NOAA's suite of models takes the eastern end of the forecast envelope. They suggest snow Friday ranging from a slushy coating, to the potential for several inches of slop in the Twin Cities by Friday evening.
Right now I am leaning toward a slushy coating in the east metro, to the potential for 1" to 3" of slush on west metro lawns by Friday evening. But time of day may be working against accumulations as temps try and push the upper 30s Friday afternoon. October snows tend to melt quickly in Minnesota.
This Twin Cities NWS snowfall depiction seems reasonable at this point.
Heavy snow band west of Twin Cities?
One trend that's catching my eye in several models, the trend for a band of heavier snow west of the Twin Cities. The combination of cold air and moisture n the west side of the passing low could generate several hours of accumulating snow along and either side of a St. Cloud-Willmar-Mankato line. The potential for several slushy inches seems to be there Friday.
Here's NOAA's NAM 12km resolution model solution.
If this scenario pans out, more significant snowfall could brush the western Twin Cities metro.
System briefing
Here's a briefing on the system via the Red River Valley NWS.
Twin Cities snowfall: Confidence factor still low
This system presents higher confidence for winter storm conditions in western and northern Minnesota. There is still higher uncertainty and we still need to watch for changing snowfall potential in the Twin Cities. We'll likely need to tweak forecast snowfall totals tomorrow.
Stay tuned.