Wet Saturday ahead; worst fires in California history

Aug-tober Friday

Friday feels like a summery weather time warp. A balmy south wind howls. Bank thermometers flash unfamiliar numbers for October 20th. The sunny air feels like August, but the trees scream October.

Warmest day for the rest of 2017

Friday will very likely be the warmest day for the rest of 2017. Minnesota rides the northern end of a late August air mass surging north today on gusty south winds. Temperatures in the 70s push all the way to Canada.

Oklahoma Mesonet

Wet Saturday

It’s been a welcome dry week for Minnesota farmers. Our next weather system arrives Saturday with shower coverage increasing throughout the day. The system is progressive, and sweeps east into Wisconsin by Sunday. Sunday features sunshine and cooler breezes. Here’s NOAA’s GFS model version of events.

NOAA GFS model via tropical tidbits.

Most of Minnesota picks up between .25″ and .70″ rainfall Saturday.

NWS Twin Cities

There is a slight risk an embedded thunderstorm could approach severe limits Saturday afternoon in southeast Minnesota.

Seasonal reality check ahead

The upper air patterns buckles and drives a significant cold front south into Minnesota and the Great Lakes next week.

NOAA

Our next cold front might be better called an “average front.” Highs next week hover in the 50s. That’s average for late October in Minnesota. That’s also a good 20 degrees colder than this week’s summer-like levels. Welcome to late October.

NOAA forecast temps via Weather Bell.

California fires worst in history

Fire officials are still tallying up the grim statistics on California’s wildfire season. It’s becoming clear that by many measures this is the worst in California history. The Tubbs fire that torched Santa Rosa is now the worst fire in California history by some measures.

So Cal fire danger rising

Record high temperatures approaching 100 degrees and Santa Ana winds will spike fire danger around Los Angeles this weekend.

We could be watching scary wildfire scenes again on the national news soon from southern California.

No drone zone

Welcome to 2017. People are flying drones into fire zones. That’s an aviation hazard for aircraft trying to fight the fires.