Shower chance for some; Fall color report
I saw some patches of beautiful fall color while driving around the Twin Cities metro area on Wednesday.
Most of the metro hasn't seen its peak color display yet.
"Peak" fall color is hard to define.
Is it when the most of the maples are showing red and orange hues, or is it when trees of all types are reaching max color?
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The latest fall color report from the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources takes into account all deciduous trees:
My wife and I saw some areas of great fall color last weekend in the Sawtooth Mountains and other spots near the north shore of Lake Superior.
A Wisconsin fall color report is also available.
Rain chances
Southern Minnesota has the best chance of showers this Thursday, but the Twin Cities metro area and central Minnesota could see a few passing sprinkles at times.
An isolated thunderstorm is also possible in southern Minnesota.
Periods of rain are expected over about the southeastern half of Minnesota Friday and Friday night, and there could also be a few thunderstorms.
Some showers could linger into Saturday morning.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential rain pattern Friday through Saturday morning:
The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the strength of the signal that returns to the radar, not to the amount of rain.
Temperature trends
Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport recorded a high temp of 90 degrees just eleven days ago. Air conditioners were humming and it sure didn't seem like autumn.
Our high temperatures over the next few days might seem cool, but they'll actually be close to normal. Our average high temp this time of year is 63 degrees in the Twin Cities.
Thursday afternoon highs are expected to top 60 degrees in southern Minnesota, with 50s in the central and north.
Friday highs will be mostly in the 50s, with some 60s southeast:
Most of Minnesota will top out in the 60s on Saturday:
Nate becomes a tropical storm
Tropical depression Nate became a tropical storm this morning.
Tropical Storm Nate was near the coast of Nicaragua Thursday morning, with max sustained winds of 40 mph. Nate could move near the Yucatan peninsula on Friday, and into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday.
Nate could become a hurricane late Saturday and make landfall anywhere from Louisiana to the Florida panhandle early on Sunday.
The Thursday morning update from the National Hurricane Center showed Nate's possible track over the next few days:
Here are the details of NHC's Nate update:
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nate Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM NATE NEAR THE
COAST OF NICARAGUA...
...FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 83.4W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM S OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua to Punta Castilla Honduras
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
Interests elsewhere in Honduras, the Bay Islands, western Cuba and
the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of Nate.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nate was
located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 83.4 West. Nate is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue this morning. A north-northwestward motion at
a faster forward speed is forecast to begin later today and continue
through Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of Nate
should move across northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras today
and then over the northwestern Caribbean Sea tonight and Friday.
The center is expected to approach the coast of the Yucatan
peninsula late Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected today as the center
of Nate moves across northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras.
Strengthening is likely over the northwestern Caribbean Sea tonight
and Friday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
mainly over water to the east of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
Puerto Cabezas recently reported a pressure of 1001 mb
(29.56 inches)
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Friday night:
Nicaragua...15 to 20 inches, isolated 30 inches
Costa Rica and Panama...5 to 10 inches, isolated 20 inches
Honduras and Belize...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches
Eastern portions of the Yucatan peninsula...4 to 8 inches, isolated
12 inches
Heavy rainfall will occur over a wide area, including locations well
away from the center along the Pacific coast of Central America.
This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area in Nicaragua and Honduras today and tonight. Tropical
storm and hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in
Mexico beginning late Friday.
SURF: Swells generated by Nate are affecting portions of the coast
of Nicaragua, and will begin to affect other land areas around the
northwestern Caribbean later this week. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.
Programming note
You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.