Rain chance increases; some sun by Saturday afternoon

It's Friday!

All eyes are on the weekend weather, and it's looking pretty good. But first, many Minnesotans will see some rain.

Rain chances increase

Rain was falling in much of southwestern Minnesota Friday morning, and the rain could spread into parts of central and south-central Minnesota by early afternoon.

Our Friday morning and early afternoon will be dry in most of eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin, but some showers might arrive during the mid- to late-afternoon hours and continue this evening.

We could even see a few afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

Periods of rain are a good bet over much of Minnesota and western Wisconsin Friday night into early Saturday morning, with a few embedded thunderstorms also possible.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential rain pattern from Friday afternoon into Saturday morning:

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the strength of the signal that returns to the radar, not to the amount of rain.

The heaviest rain totals from Friday afternoon through Saturday are expected to be over southeastern Minnesota, where some spots could see more than 2 inches of rain:

Sunshine should return to most of Minnesota Saturday afternoon, and plenty of sun is on tap for Sunday.

Temperature trends

Most of Minnesota will see highs in the 50s Friday afternoon, with some 60s in the Twin Cities metro area and the southeast.

On Saturday most of Minnesota will top out in the 60s:

A few spots in the south could touch 70 degrees.

Sundays highs will be in the 50s over northern Minnesota, with mainly 60s in the central and south:

Twin Cities high temps are expected to be in the 60s  most of this coming week, but we might see only 50s on Tuesday.

Our average high right now is 63 degrees in the Twin Cities.

Fall colors

Some great fall color is viewable in Minnesota right now.

The most recent fall color report from the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources shows where you can see the best autumn hues:

A Wisconsin fall color report is also available.

Tropical Storm Nate update

Tropical Storm Nate had max winds of 45 mph Friday morning, according to the National Hurricane Center.

According to the NHC, the center of Nate could be near the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico Friday afternoon.

Nate is expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico late Friday night or early Saturday morning. Nate could become a hurricane by late Saturday and could make landfall along the Louisiana or Mississippi coast late Saturday night or early Sunday.

Here's the  National Hurricane Center's projected path for Nate:

Here's the NHC Friday morning Nate update:

BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Nate Intermediate Advisory Number 8A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017

700 AM CDT Fri Oct 06 2017

...AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY

INVESTIGATING NATE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

 

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...17.8N 84.8W

ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM NE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS

ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Punta Castilla Honduras to the Honduras/Nicaragua border

* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Morgan City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border

* Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border

* Metropolitan New Orleans

* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line

* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Honduras, the Bay Islands, western Cuba, the

Yucatan Peninsula, and the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico

should monitor the progress of Nate.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nate was

located by Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near

latitude 17.8 North, longitude 84.8 West. Nate is moving toward the

north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general track with a

marked increase in forward speed is expected during the next day or

two. On the forecast track, the center of Nate will move across the

northwestern Caribbean Sea today, and reach the eastern coast of the

Yucatan peninsula early this evening. Nate will then move into the

southern Gulf of Mexico tonight and approach the northern Gulf coast

Saturday evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher

gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and

Nate is expected to become a hurricane by the time it reaches the

northern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)

mainly to the east of the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter

data is 996 mb (29.41 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain

accumulations through this weekend:

Southern Honduras and western Nicaragua: 6-10 inches, max 15 inches

Eastern El Salvador and northern to central Honduras: 3 to 5 inches,

max 8 inches

Eastern Yucatan and western Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, max 8 inches

Eastern Belize and the Cayman Islands: 1 to 3 inches

U.S. Central Gulf Coast states: 3 to 6 inches, max 12 inches

Heavy rainfall will occur over a wide area, including locations well

away from the center along the Pacific coast of Central America.

Rainfall across all of these areas may produce life-threatening

flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within

portions of the warning area in Honduras during the next few

hours, but gradually subside. Hurricane conditions are possible

within the hurricane watch area in Mexico by tonight, with tropical

storm conditions expected by late this evening.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch areas along

the U.S. Gulf coast beginning Saturday evening, with hurricane

conditions possible in the hurricane watch area Saturday night.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1

to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in

areas of onshore winds on the Yucatan Peninsula and the adjacent

islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and

destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the

northwestern Caribbean during the next day or two. These swells are

likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Please consult products from your local weather office.

 

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

According to Philip Klotzbach, it has been about 15 years since the central Gulf Coast has seen a hurricane landfall in October:

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.