Does our October snow suggest a snowy winter?

Friday's October snowfall was the earliest in many years for Minnesota. Several inches of fresh snow blanketed central and northern Minnesota.

But what does our October snowfall tells us about the likelihood of snowfall this winter? Statistically, not much.

The Minnesota DNR Climate Working Group looked at years with October snow and analyzed snowfall trends for the following winter.

When snows come early in Minnesota, winter-lovers rejoice, but those who resent the cold season may start to feel dread. So, do early snows tell us anything about the coming winter?

In short, no. It appears that an October snow is just an October snow, and has no bearing on the remainder of winter. Through 2016, 44 out of 140 Octobers in the Twin Cities have seen at least one day with measurable snow. The winters that followed those instances of snowfall have spanned nearly the entire spectrum of possibilities: dry, wet, snowy, cold, warm, and of course, average. In northern Minnesota, where October snows occur most years, the range of winter conditions after those snows is even wider.

Even a persistently snowy autumn cannot promise us a brutal remainder of winter. In 1991, both Duluth and the Twin Cities had more autumn snow than any other year on record, by wide margins. November was the 12th coldest on record in Duluth and the 7th coldest in the Twin Cities. The remainder of winter, however, was a far cry from what we would have expected: snowfall from December onward ranked 93rd at both locations, and the December through February period was 17th warmest at Duluth and 11th warmest in the Twin Cities. Indeed, winters immediately following a snowy fall can be just about anything.

The following table summarizes the fifteen snowiest autumn seasons in the Twin Cities, along with a look at what the remainder of each winter was like. It is clear that getting measurable snow early in the season tells us little if anything about the rest of the cold weather season!

On the table above I took the liberty of highlighting in blue the only two years of the 15-snowiest autumns that produced top 15 snowfall rankings the following winter. So one thing we can say about October snows. Statistically speaking 13 of the top 15 winters did not keep pace with top 15 autumn rankings for snowfall.

Stay tuned.