A pleasant Sunday; Tuesday morning frost
A bright and mild autumn day is very special.
We'd prefer to have our nicest autumn weather on weekends, when most people aren't busy with work or school.
There'll be a few Sunday morning showers in parts of northern Minnesota, and northern Minnesota will also have the most clouds.
Our Sunday will feature plenty of sunshine for much of central and southern Minnesota.
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The Vikings don't play until Monday night, so Viking fans won't have to make the choice between football and outdoor fun this Sunday afternoon!
Temperature trends
Our Sunday highs will range from the upper 50s in the northwest to the lower 70s in parts of southeastern Minnesota.
Monday highs will be cooler in many spots, ranging from the 40s northwest to lower 60s in the southeast:
Low temps late Monday night and early Tuesday morning will be very chilly, with 20s north and 30s in central and southern Minnesota:
Many Minnesotans could see some frost late Monday night and/or early Tuesday morning.
The temperature at ground level can be several degrees cooler than the temperature measured five to six feet above the ground, so even some Twin Cities metro area locations could see frost early Tuesday morning.
Highs Tuesday will be mainly in the 50s:
Twin Cities metro are highs are expected to reach the mid 60s on Wednesday, followed by upper 60s Thursday and Friday.
Tropical Storm Nate
Hurricane Nate made landfall at the mouth of the Mississippi River Saturday evening, then moved over water again briefly before making a second landfall near Biloxi, Mississippi.
According to the National Hurricane Center, Nate has now dropped to tropical storm strength, with max sustained winds of 45 mph, and is centered about 95 miles west-southwest of Montgomery Alabama.
Here's the Sunday morning update on Nate, from the NHC:
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nate Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
700 AM CDT Sun Oct 08 2017
...NATE RAPIDLY WEAKENING BUT STORM SURGE FLOODING CONTINUES...
...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.0N 88.0W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ESE OF MERIDIAN MISSISSIPPI
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM WSW OF MONTGOMERY ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued west of the
Mississippi/Alabama border.
The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of the
Alabama/Florida border.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
Florida
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border eastward to Indian Pass Florida
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nate was
located by NOAA Doppler weather radars and surface observations near
latitude 32.0 North, longitude 88.0 West. Nate is moving toward the
north-northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h). A turn toward the northeast
with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple
of days. On the forecast track, Nate's center will continue to move
inland across the Deep South, Tennessee Valley, and central
Appalachian Mountains through Monday.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Nate is expected to continue to quickly weaken
as it moves farther inland. It should degenerate into a remnant low
late Monday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (150 km)
primarily southeast of the center over water. A wind gust to 58 mph
(93 km/h) was reported at Destin, Florida within the past couple of
hours.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.35 inches).
Water levels of around 3.0 to 3.5 ft above Mean Higher High Water
(MHHW) have recently been reported by National Ocean Service gauges
at Pensacola, Florida, and Mobile Bay, Alabama.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the
tropical storm warning area for the next couple of hours.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide
will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to
reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at
the time of high tide...
Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border, including
Mobile Bay...5 to 8 ft
Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line...3 to 5
ft
Morgan City, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border...1 to 3 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass, Florida...2 to 3 ft
Indian Pass to Crystal River, Florida...1 to 3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Monday:
East of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the
Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians:
3 to 6 inches, max 10 inches.
Across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians:
2 to 5 inches, max 7 inches.
TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible today, mainly from the
Florida Panhandle and eastern Alabama across western and northern
Georgia.
SURF: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the
Gulf of Mexico through this evening. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
The center of Nate is expected to move over Alabama on Sunday, according to the National Hurricane Center:
Nate will bring heavy rains to parts of Alabama, Tennessee and northwest Georgia Sunday and Sunday evening.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model shows the potential rain pattern Sunday and Sunday evening:
Fall colors
There's a lot of beautiful fall color around the state of Minnesota right now.
Here's the most recent fall color report from the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources:
All deciduous trees are included in the fall color report, not just maples.
A Wisconsin fall color report is also available.
Programming note
You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.