A cool Sunday, with frost possible Sunday night; Ophelia heading toward Ireland

It was soggy in much of Minnesota Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

Much of the Twin Cities metro area saw more than one half inch of rain, with Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport recording a total of .56 inches.

Parts of the metro area recorded just under one inch of rain.

Here are some addition local rainfall totals, from the Twin Cities NWS:

Public Information Statement

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN

1014 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

...Highest Rainfall Reports from the Past 24 Hours...

Location Amount Time/Date Provider

Shakopee 1NW 0.96 in 1000 AM 10/15 CWOP

Columbia Hgts 1S 0.95 in 0700 AM 10/15 COCORAHS

Golden Valley 0.95 in 0736 AM 10/15 COCORAHS

Camp Ripley 4E 0.93 in 0700 AM 10/15 COCORAHS

Hastings (L/D 2) 0.90 in 0800 AM 10/15 COOP

Cottage Grove 1ESE 0.89 in 0957 AM 10/15 CWOP

Paynesville AP 0.89 in 0653 AM 10/15 AWOS

Victoria 2ENE 0.88 in 0800 AM 10/15 COCORAHS

Eagan 1NW 0.87 in 0745 AM 10/15 COCORAHS

St. Louis Park 0.84 in 0700 AM 10/15 COCORAHS

Robbinsdale 0.82 in 0700 AM 10/15 COCORAHS

Little Falls 0.82 in 0700 AM 10/15 COCORAHS

Little Falls 2SSE 0.81 in 0907 AM 10/15 RAWS

St Croix Falls 7ESE 0.81 in 0600 AM 10/15 COCORAHS

Lake Minnetonka 1WSW 0.80 in 1001 AM 10/15 CWOP

Cottage Grove 0.80 in 0959 AM 10/15 CWOP

Victoria 1WSW 0.80 in 0958 AM 10/15 CWOP

Burnsville 2SSW 0.80 in 0700 AM 10/15 COCORAHS

Burnsville 3SSW 0.80 in 0700 AM 10/15 COCORAHS

River Falls 1S 0.80 in 0700 AM 10/15 COCORAHS

El Paso 1NW 0.80 in 0800 AM 10/15 COCORAHS

Minnetonka 0.79 in 0955 AM 10/15 CWOP

Clontarf 0.79 in 0945 AM 10/15 GOES

Roseville 2WNW 0.79 in 0600 AM 10/15 COCORAHS

Sartell 1SSE 0.79 in 0700 AM 10/15 COCORAHS

Benson 0.78 in 0945 AM 10/15 GOES

Milan 5E 0.78 in 0945 AM 10/15 USARMY-COE

St. Cloud (SCSU) 0.78 in 0700 AM 10/15 UCOOP

Hugo 2WSW 0.77 in 1000 AM 10/15 CWOP

Victoria 1WSW 0.77 in 0700 AM 10/15 COCORAHS

Avon 4ESE 0.76 in 0944 AM 10/15 CWOP

Paynesville 1SSW 0.76 in 0700 AM 10/15 COCORAHS

Cornell 4W 0.76 in 0800 AM 10/15 COCORAHS

Benson 0.75 in 0945 AM 10/15 GOES

Roberts 0.75 in 0800 AM 10/15 COOP

Balsam Lake 4SE 0.75 in 0700 AM 10/15 COCORAHS

Bloomer 0.74 in 0800 AM 10/15 COOP

Farmington 3E 0.74 in 0800 AM 10/15 COCORAHS

Benson 0.73 in 0930 AM 10/15 GOES

Jordan 6E 0.73 in 0958 AM 10/15 CWOP

St. Martin 1NW 0.73 in 0900 AM 10/15 HADS

Roseville 1NW 0.72 in 0700 AM 10/15 COCORAHS

St. Joseph 0.72 in 0700 AM 10/15 COCORAHS

Afton 1E 0.71 in 0900 AM 10/15 COCORAHS

Sobieski 3E 0.71 in 1000 AM 10/15 HADS

Eagan 2ESE 0.70 in 0730 AM 10/15 COCORAHS

Watkins 3WSW 0.70 in 0900 AM 10/15 COCORAHS

Observations are collected from a variety of sources with varying

equipment and exposures. We thank all volunteer weather observers

for their dedication. Not all data listed are considered official.

One inch or more of rain fell in some areas between Sandstone and Duluth, and also in an area northwest of Two Harbors, based on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s 24 hour estimated rainfall map ending at 7 a.m. Sunday:

Sunday will be dry for most of us, but one forecast model hints at a late day sprinkle chance in central and east-central Minnesota.

Other models show no rain at all.

Temperature trends

Highs are expected to reach only the upper 40s in about the northern third of Minnesota Sunday afternoon.

Lower 50s will be common elsewhere.

Our average Twin Cities metro area high is 59 degrees this time of year, so this will be a cool Sunday afternoon.

Temperatures dip into the 30s over most of Minnesota late Sunday night/early Monday morning, so frost is a definite possibility.

It might be a good idea to cover tender outdoor plants, or bring potted and hanging plants indoors Sunday night.

After Monday morning we'll see a warming trend.

Monday highs reach the lower 60s in much of Minnesota, with 50s northeast:

Tuesday will be even warmer, with many spots in central and southern Minnesota touching 70 in the afternoon:

Twin Cities metro area highs are extended to reach the lower 70s Wednesday through Friday.

Hurricane Ophelia moves toward Ireland

We don't often hear the words "hurricane" and "Ireland" in the same sentence:

Ophelia will have lost it's tropical characteristics by Monday and will be a post-tropical cyclone.

Although Ophelia will no longer be a hurricane on Monday, she is still expected to bring damaging hurricane-force winds to parts of Ireland.

Here's Ophelia's projected path, from the National Hurricane Center:

And the complete Sunday morning Ophelia update from NHC:

BULLETIN

Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 26

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017

1100 AM AST Sun Oct 15 2017

...OPHELIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A STRONG POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY

TONIGHT...

 

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...41.6N 16.0W

ABOUT 635 MI...1020 KM ENE OF THE AZORES

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 38 MPH...61 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann,

and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued

by the UK Met Office.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ophelia was

located near latitude 41.6 North, longitude 16.0 West. Ophelia is

moving toward the north-northeast near 38 mph (61 km/h), and this

motion is expected to continue during the next 24 to 48 hours. On

the forecast track, the center of the post-tropical cyclone will

approach Ireland tomorrow morning. However, strong winds and rains

should begin earlier.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher

gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, but Ophelia should

maintain hurricane force winds until it reaches Ireland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles

(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND: Gale-force winds are expected to begin across southern

Ireland by early Monday morning and gradually spread northward

across the country during the day. Hurricane-force winds are

expected to reach the southern portions of Ireland by Monday

afternoon and spread inland across the country into Monday night.

Preparations to protect lives and property should be rushed to

completion by this afternoon.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains

are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds

indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be

even greater.

RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to

3 inches (50 mm to 75 mm) with isolated totals near 4 inches (100

mm) through Tuesday across western Ireland and Scotland. Across

eastern Ireland, rainfall amounts will average around 1 inch (25 mm)

or less.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce

significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the

center of the post-tropical cyclone makes landfall. Near the coast,

the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

 

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.