Update on Hurricane Irma; pleasant Sunday in Minnesota
Powerful Hurricane Irma moved along the northern coast of Cuba Saturday afternoon.
Winds were already gusting over 60 mph at Key West, Florida Saturday evening:
The center of Hurricane Irma is expected to cross the Florida straits overnight Saturday night, and strengthening of Irma is expected as she moves over the warm water of the straits.
Irma may be centered near the Florida Keys on Sunday morning.
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On Sunday and Sunday night, Irma is expected to follow a course along or near the west coast of Florida, according to the National Hurricane Center:
Hurricane force winds will spread across most of Florida Sunday and Sunday night, and the storm surge of water is expected to be 5 to 10 feet above ground level in many spots along the west coast of Florida, according to the NHC.
The latest National Hurricane Center forecast shows that a storm surge of 10 to 15 feet above ground level is possible from Cape Sable to Captiva.
Heavy rains of one to two feet are possible from Irma, along with some tornadoes.
Here's the Saturday evening update from the National Hurricane Center:
BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Intermediate Advisory Number 43A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
800 PM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017
...HEAVY SQUALLS WITH EMBEDDED TORNADOES SWEEPING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 80.8W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ENE OF VARADERO CUBA
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...932 MB...27.52 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River southward around the Florida peninsula to the
Suwanee River
* Florida Keys
* Tampa Bay
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of the Suwanee River to Ochlockonee River
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Fernandina Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to Indian
Pass
* Florida Keys
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,
Villa Clara, Matanzas, and Havana
* Andros Island, Bimini, and Grand Bahama
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Fernandina Beach to Edisto Beach
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West of Indian Pass to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* North of Fernandina Beach to South Santee River
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the southeastern United States
should monitor the progress of Irma.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located by
a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NWS Doppler radar near
latitude 23.3 North, longitude 80.8 West. Radar loops indicate
that Irma has temporarily slowed down, but the hurricane has been
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) since earlier
today. A northwest motion is expected to begin tonight with a turn
toward the north-northwest on Sunday. On the forecast track, the
core of Irma will continue to move near the north coast of Cuba
during the next few hours, and should be near the Florida Keys
Sunday morning. The hurricane is expected to move along or near the
southwest coast of Florida Sunday afternoon.
A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft has found that Irma's intensity is
a little lower, and the maximum sustained winds are estimated to be
near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 3
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Irma is
forecast to restrengthen once it moves away from Cuba and remain a
powerful hurricane as it approaches Florida.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km). Marathon International Airport recently reported a
sustained wind of 48 mph (77 km/h) and a gust to 67 mph (108 km/h).
The minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 932 mb
(27.52 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Cape Sable to Captiva...10 to 15 ft
Captiva to Ana Maria Island...6 to 10 ft
Card Sound Bridge through Cape Sable, including the Florida Keys...
5 to 10 ft
Ana Maria Island to Clearwater Beach, including Tampa Bay...
5 to 8 ft
North Miami Beach to Card Sound Bridge, including Biscayne Bay...
4 to 6 ft
South Santee River to Fernandina Beach...4 to 6 ft
Clearwater Beach to Ochlockonee River...4 to 6 ft
Fernandina Beach to North Miami Beach...2 to 4 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking
waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the
following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the
north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Northwestern Bahamas...3 to 6 ft
Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area...5 to 10 ft
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue within the
hurricane warning area along the north coast of Cuba through
tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the
northwestern Bahamas tonight, and in portions of the Florida
peninsula and the Florida Keys beginning Sunday morning. Tropical
storm and hurricane conditions are expected to spread northward
across the remainder of the warning areas through Monday.
RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Wednesday:
Northern Cuba...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches.
Southern Cuba...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Western Bahamas...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
The Florida Keys...10 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches.
The Florida peninsula and southeast Georgia...8 to 15 inches,
isolated 20 inches.
The eastern Florida Panhandle and southern South Carolina...4 to 8
inches, isolated 10 inches.
Rest of eastern Georgia, western South Carolina, and western North
Carolina...4 to 8 inches.
Western Georgia, eastern and northern Alabama, and southern
Tennessee...2 to 5 inches.
In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods
and, in some areas, mudslides.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this evening and tonight
over south Florida, expanding northward into central Florida on
Sunday.
SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeastern
Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast coast of the
United States today. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
Hurricane warnings have been issued by the NHC for almost all of the Florida coastline, except for a small portion of Florida's panhandle.
Storm surge warnings extend from the Florida Keys to just north of Cedar Key on Florida's west coast, and along all of Florida's east coast and north to Charleston, South Carolina.
Miami update
Miami will be spared from Irma's strongest winds, but the Miami area is under a NWS hurricane warning and storm surge warning:
Irma Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 43
National Weather Service Miami FL AL112017
526 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2017
FLZ173-100530-
/O.CON.KMFL.SS.W.1011.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMFL.HU.W.1011.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Coastal Miami-Dade-
526 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2017
...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...STORM SURGE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Miami
- Miami Beach
- Key Biscayne
- Perrine
- Princeton
* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Strong Tropical Storm force
wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 45-60 mph with gusts to 80 mph
- Window for Tropical Storm force winds: until early Monday
morning
- CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Extreme
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- Remain braced against the reasonable threat for major
hurricane force wind greater than 110 mph of equivalent
Category 3 intensity or higher.
- To be safe, efforts should fully focus on protecting life.
Properties remain subject to devastating to catastrophic
wind impacts.
- Now is the time to urgently hide from the wind. Failure to
adequately shelter may result in serious injury, loss of
life, or immense human suffering. Remain sheltered until
the hazardous wind subsides. Be ready to quickly move to
the safest place within your shelter if extreme wind
warnings are issued.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Unfolding
- Potential impacts from the main wind event are unfolding.
* STORM SURGE
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Life-threatening storm surge possible
- Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 4-6 feet
above ground somewhere within surge prone areas
- Window of concern: Begins early Sunday morning
- CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Moderate
- The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- Emergency plans should include a reasonable threat for
dangerous storm surge flooding of greater than 3 feet above
ground.
- To be safe, earnestly prepare for the potential of
significant storm surge flooding impacts. Evacuation
efforts should now be brought to completion. Evacuations
must be complete before driving conditions become unsafe.
- Life-threatening inundation is possible. Failure to heed
evacuation orders may result in serious injury or loss of
life. Leave if evacuation orders are given for your area.
Consider voluntary evacuation if recommended. Poor
decisions may needlessly risk lives.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated
by waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the
coast.
- Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads
become weakened or washed out, especially in usually
vulnerable low spots.
- Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong
and numerous rip currents.
- Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially
in unprotected anchorages.
* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flood Watch is in effect
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 10-14 inches, with
locally higher amounts
- CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Extreme
- The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
the previous assessment.
- Emergency considerations should include a threat of
flooding.
- Be safe and remain ready to protect against flooding rain
impacts.
- If flood related watches and warnings are in effect, heed
recommended actions.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Devastating to Catastrophic
- Extreme rainfall flooding may prompt numerous evacuations
and rescues.
- Ditches and canals may overwhelmingly overflow their banks
in many places with deep moving water. Flood control
systems and barriers may become stressed.
- Flood waters can enter numerous structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or
washed away. Numerous places where flood waters may cover
escape routes with streets, parking lots and underpasses
submerged. Driving conditions become very dangerous.
Numerous road and bridge closures with some weakened or
washed out.
* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Tornado Watch is in effect
- Situation is favorable for tornadoes
- CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Moderate
- The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- Emergency considerations should include a reasonable threat
for tornadoes.
- Be safe and remain ready to protect against tornado
impacts. Stay informed.
- Listen for tornado watches and warnings. If a tornado
approaches, quickly move to the safest place within your
shelter.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the
execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
- Several places may experience tornado damage with a few
spots of considerable damage, power loss, and
communications failures.
- Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped
or uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed
about. Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.
Accuracy counts
Unfortunately, false information about severe weather events sometimes appears.
FEMA will help you find accurate information about things like hurricane shelters:
Pleasant Sunday in Minnesota
Scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm will be possible on Sunday in southwestern and west-central Minnesota.
Most Minnesotans will have a dry Sunday, and highs in the south could reach the lower 80s:
Twin Cities metro area highs are expected to be in the lower 80s Sunday through Thursday, then in the upper 70s on Friday.
Programming note:
You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.