Sunny start for the weekend as periods of rain approach
Saturday is kicking off the weekend with frost in areas north of the Twin Cities. Places including Hinckley, Moose Lake and Mora dropped into the frost-producing mid 30s. Air temperatures in the 30s are cold enough to allow frost to form on the ground and garden plants if the sky is clear and the wind is calm.
Mostly lovely Saturday
Today will be the best day of the weekend to be out and about. Fall color will be ablaze under slanted sunlight in northern Minnesota today.
High temperatures should range from near 60 in northernmost Minnesota to the upper 60s around the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota including Rochester. Winds will become quite gusty up to about 30 mph from the southeast in southwestern Minnesota this afternoon.
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The wrinkle in the weather is that our recent dry pattern is breaking down. Clouds will build northeastward today. Scattered showers are breaking out in southwestern Minnesota already this morning
Rainy weather coming to welcome October
Scattered showers will increase from southwestern Minnesota into the central part of the state Saturday night. The attendant clouds will prop up overnight temperatures and prevent frost.
Showers will be on the increase on Sunday, again spreading northeastward. Most forecast models are indicating that the early-morning showers might pass just north of Minneapolis and allow for dry weather for the start of the Twin Cities Marathon, but rain might catch up to the runners before they reach St. Paul. In any case, showers will become likely for the metro area in the afternoon and evening. A few non-severe thunderstorms might break out across western Minnesota.
Highs will be in the 60s with a gusty wind from the southeast on Sunday.
Stormy Monday
The weather map for Monday is an interesting one. Rain will be widespread in our area. Parts of southern Minnesota could easily become soaked by repeated rains. Localized flash flooding is possible. And, as a prelude to the snowy season, a winter storm watch has been posted for much of central Montana, including the lower elevations.
Even though the calendar will have been flipped to October, severe weather is possible on Monday. A marginal risk of severe weather has been posted from southwestern Minnesota to about Duluth, including the Twin Cities and the northwestern edge of Wisconsin. Strong to severe storms are most likely late in the afternoon and Monday evening. The primary risk will be for hail.
Wet weather will continue
Periods of rain and possibly some thunderstorms are likely to continue through at least Tuesday. Some parts of southern to east central Minnesota might get two or more inches of rain over the next several days.
October temperatures
Let's take a look ahead at the likely temperature outlook for October. As shown below, Minnesota will have a better-than-even chance of having a mild October as we are forecast to be on the eastern edge of some serious warmth that will develop across a large part of the West. The average high in the Twin Cities drops to 51 by the end of the month.
