Summer soiree lingers, keeping one eye on Jose

The week before Labor Day, I was in seasonal denial.

That can happen in Minnesota, where summers are often fleeting. It took a timely Labor Day cold front and hailstorm to wake me up to September reality in Minnesota. The weather maps and I appear to have suffered a temporary summer relapse this week.

Southerly flow

These last shots of summery air masses are sweet across Minnesota. This one features the usual southerly winds, and dew points int he slightly sticky 60s. A cold front rides in as the weekend approaches with increasing scattered showers and thunderstorm coverage.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Global Forecast System model, via tropical tidbits

Temperature speed bump

Cooler westerly breezes blow in behind the cool front Sunday and Monday. Temperatures begin to recover again by Tuesday, and could touch 80 once again next week.

NOAA, via Weather Bell

Late September cold front?

The longer range upper air maps suggest northwest flow aloft could drive home a more significant cold front in the closing days of September.

NOAA

Highs could crash from the 70s to near 80 degrees, into the 50s by month’s end according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Global Forecast System model. Again, we look more for temperature trends than specifics in these products in the two- to three- week range.

NOAA GFS, via Meteostar

Smoke lingers

NOAA’s smoke mapping sensor has been busy lately. Here’s this morning’s image.

NOAA

NOAA winter weather simplification

NOAA will trim and combine some winter weather products this season. Clear communication is half the battle for us as meteorologists.

Irma churns Florida waters

Yet another impact of Irma? The churning of sediment in waters along her path.

Watching Jose

This falls under no need to be concerned. Yet. But Jose is still churning as a minimal hurricane in the Atlantic. He seems content to loop offshore for the next several days.

NOAA

Many models next week bring Jose closer to the U.S. east coast. It’s way too early to get too concerned here. Jose could stay offshore. But we’ll need to keep one eye on him.

Here’s the overnight European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts run. The GFS and Canadian models are similar.

ECMWF model, via tropical tidbits

Stay tuned.