Steamy Saturday southeast, thunder chance for some

Our Saturday will be steamy for some Minnesotans, but cool and wet for others.

A stationary front runs diagonally from southwestern Minnesota to the northeast.

Heat index values are expected to climb into the 90s Saturday afternoon to the southeast of the front:

According to the National Weather Service:

The Heat Index is a measure of how hot it really feels when relative humidity is factored in with the actual air temperature.

Temperature trends

Saturday afternoon highs are expected to range from the 60s in northwestern Minnesota to the lower 90s in far southeastern Minnesota.

Some spots in the Twin Cities metro area could reach 90 degrees, which is well above our average high of 69 degrees for this date.

On Sunday, highs could range from the 50s in far northwestern Minnesota to the upper 80s in the southeast:

The cooler air spreads eastward on Monday:

Highs in the Twin Cities metro area are expected to be in the 60s next Tuesday through Friday.

Rain chances

The best chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Saturday night is expected to remain over about the northwestern half of Minnesota.

The Twin Cities metro area could see a late afternoon or evening shower or thunderstorm, but the best rain chances stay to the northwest.

On Sunday, the northwestern half of Minnesota will have the best chance of some showers and thunderstorms, but rain chances increase late in the day to the east.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential rain pattern Sunday and Sunday night:

NOAA NAM simulated radar from Sunday morning through Monday morning, via tropicaltidbits

Severe weather outlook

The Storm Prediction Center of the National Weather Service shows a marginal risk of severe weather Saturday and Saturday night from southwestern and west-central Minnesota northeastward:

NWS Storm Prediction Center

Marginal risk means that an isolated severe thunderstorm is possible.

The Minnesota Public Radio Network will let you know if any watches and warning are issued, and you can also get severe weather updates on the MPR news live weather blog.

Warm lows

You know it’s warm when your low temperatures are setting records.

The low temp on Friday was only 73 degrees at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport.

That was a record warm low temp for September 22 in the Twin Cities:

Our Saturday low temp might also set a record for warmth, since the lowest temp at MSP airport through 7 a.m. Saturday was 73 degrees.

Fall colors

Today’s Fall color report from the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources shows some good fall color in much of northern Minnesota:

Minnesota Department of Natural Resources

Patches of good fall color can also be seen in central and southeastern Minnesota.

Hurricane Maria 

Infrared to visible loop of Maria Saturday morning. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

The Saturday morning update from the National Hurricane Center showed that Maria had max winds of 120 mph.

Maria was centered 340 miles east of Nassau, and was moving to the north-northwest.

Here’s the possible track of Maria, according to the NHC:

National Hurricane Center

The Saturday morning update on Hurricane Maria states she will turn to the north on Sunday:

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
500 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

…WARNINGS DISCONTINUED FOR THE BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS…
…HIGH SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST…

 

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…24.8N 72.0W
ABOUT 165 MI…270 KM ENE OF SAN SALVADOR
ABOUT 340 MI…545 KM E OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…120 MPH…195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…952 MB…28.12 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of the Bahamas has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Warning for the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos
Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Maria.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 72.0 West. Maria is moving
toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the
north is expected on Sunday. On the forecast track, Maria should
move away from the Bahamas into the open waters of the western
Atlantic today.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Maria is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are expected during
the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Locally gusty winds are possible across the central and
southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands today.

STORM SURGE: Water levels in the southeastern Bahamas and the
Turks and Caicos Islands will subside as Maria moves away from those
islands.

RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of less than one inch, with isolated maximum amounts
near 2 inches over Turks and Caicos and the eastern Bahamas through
Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting Puerto Rico, the
Virgin Islands, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and
Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas. These swells will begin to
increase along portions of the southeastern United States coast and
Bermuda today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.