Powerful but weakened Irma is centered over northern Florida

Irma update

Hurricane Irma certainly has given Florida everything she had, from the Keys to Georgia and from west coast to east coast.

Torrential rain caused widespread flooding from Key West to Jacksonville. The strongest winds, located in the eyewall spinning around the calm center of the storm, made a direct hit on Naples and Fort Myers.  A wind gust of 142 mph was measured in Naples.

Fortunately for Tampa, Irma shifted slightly to the east and allowed that flood-prone city to avoid the disastrous storm surge that had been anticipated.

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Irma weakened overnight and as of 7 a.m. was downgraded to a strong tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph. But danger persists as the wind field is very large and torrential rain is causing more flooding.

Very heavy rain continues to fall across the northern half of the storm, especially in northern Florida and southeastern Georgia. Jacksonville, Fla., had measured more than 9 inches of rain up to 7 a.m. today with rain still falling.

Sept 11 - JAX radar
Weather radar at 7:36 a.m. Jacksonville National Weather Service

Rain is falling as far north as Chattanooga, Tenn.

Irma is tracking to the north-northwest at 18 mph and will continue to turn a bit to the left over the next couple days. A tropical storm warning remains in effect for almost all of Georgia, including Atlanta. Irma should weaken to a tropical depression by the time it approaches Memphis on Wednesday.

Sept 11 - Irma fcst track
Forecast track of Tropical Storm Irma. national Hurricane Center

Most of the significant weather across the country will be in the Southeast again Tuesday.

Sept 11 - Tue fcst map
Tuesday forecast weather map. NOAA Weather Predicition Center

More pleasant weather for us

A few sprinkles crossed central Minnesota overnight. The rest of the day will just be sunny or partly cloudy, depending on your location. High temperatures will be from the mid 70s to low 80s. The Twin Cities should reach about 82 on a day when the average high is 74.

Tuesday will be a couple degrees warmer.

Our next chances of rain could reach western Minnesota Thursday night. For most of us, the prospects for a little moisture will be best on Friday and Saturday.

Sept 11 - mpx wx story
Upcoming weather for the Twin Cities area. Twin Cities National Weather Service

Hurricane Jose

If you have been following all the news about Hurricane Irma, you might have heard about Hurricane Jose trailing behind. Jose is now a Category 2 hurricane.

The good news is that Jose is not likely to follow Irma. But Jose is going to follow a wobbly path that might perplex us forecasters.

The models indicate that Jose is likely to turn to the right, toward Bermuda, but then continue in a complete clockwise circle. That track likely would cause Jose to weaken a bit as it eventually crosses its rain-cooled past path. Models then indicate that Jose might brush the Bahamas about next Saturday.

Sept 11 - Hurricane Jose
Forecast track of Hurricane Jose. National Hurricane Center

After next Saturday, the GFS forecast model is indicating that Jose might strengthen over the warm Gulf Stream and then approach the mid-Atlantic States.

Sept 11 - GFS 7A Mon Sept 18
Forecast map for next Monday morning. NOAA?College of DuPage

Of course, this outlook is for a week from now, so don't abandon your plans to visit the Outer Banks just yet. Previous model runs over the weekend showed Jose making landfall in Maine or New York City.