Florida is in Irma’s path this weekend; quiet in Minnesota
Hurricane Irma is a Category 5 hurricane moving just north of Hispaniola this Thursday morning, with maximum sustained winds of 180 mph.
Irma brought catastrophic damage to Antigua and Barbuda Tuesday and Tuesday night:
The center of Irma moved just north of Puerto Rico Wednesday night:
Irma's circulation this Thursday morning:
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A larger view, using infrared sensors:
Florida is bracing for a hit from Irma this weekend:
Here's the Thursday morning Irma update from the National Hurricane Center:
BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Intermediate Advisory Number 33A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
800 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2017
...EYE OF IRMA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE NORTHERN COAST
OF HISPANIOLA...
...HEADING FOR THE TURK AND CAICOS ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 69.0W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM N OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...921 MB...27.20 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with
Haiti
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le
Mole St. Nicholas
* Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands
* Central Bahamas
* Northwestern Bahamas
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuba from Matanzas province eastward to Guantanamo province
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from south of Cabo Engano westward to the
southern border with Haiti
* Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince
* Cuba provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic and Haiti, as well as
Cuba and Florida should monitor the progress of Irma. A Hurricane
Watch will likely be issued later this morning for portions of
southern Florida and the Florida Keys.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 69.0 West. Irma is moving
toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed
for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the eye of Irma
should continue to move just north of the coast of Hispaniola today,
be near the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas by this
evening, and then be near the Central Bahamas by Friday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 180 mph (285 km/h) with
higher gusts. Irma is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a
powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).
The latest minimum central pressure just reported by an Air Force
Hurricane Hunter plane is 921 mb (27.20 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and
large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area
near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Turks and Caicos Islands...15 to 20 ft
Southeastern and central Bahamas...15 to 20 ft
Northwestern Bahamas...4 to 7 ft
Northern coast of the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 ft
Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave...1 to 3 ft
Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area...5 to 10 ft
Water levels around Puerto Rico should subside today.
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the
hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic and Haiti today,
with tropical storm conditions beginning in the next few hours.
Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in the warning area in
the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands later
today with tropical storm conditions expected within the next
several hours. These conditions will spread into the Central
Bahamas by tonight or early Friday.
Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area in Cuba by Friday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin within the warning area in Cuba tonight. Hurricane
conditions are expected in the northwestern Bahamas Friday night and
Saturday.
RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Saturday:
Northeast Puerto Rico and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands...An
additional 2 to 4 inches.
Much of the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos...8 to 12 inches,
isolated 20 inches.
Northern Dominican Republic and northern Haiti...4 to 10 inches,
isolated 15 inches.
Eastern and Central Cuba...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Southern Haiti...1 to 4 inches.
In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides.
SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the northern Leeward
Islands, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the southeastern Bahamas,
the Turks and Caicos Islands, the northern coast of the Dominican
Republic, and they should start affecting portions of the southeast
coast of the United States later today and tonight. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
The potential track of Irma looks like this:
The cone shows the possible tracks of Irma's center.
If Irma takes the track near the Florida Keys and Miami, catastrophic damage would occur in parts of south Florida.
Cool in Minnesota
Thursday highs will range from the upper 50s in northeastern Minnesota to the upper 70s in the southwest.
Friday's highs will be cool as well, with mostly 60s in northern and central Minnesota, some lower 70s south.
70s expand to cover much of Minnesota on Saturday:
70s will also be widespread on Sunday:
Our average high is now 75 degrees in the Twin Cities metro area.
Drought update
The latest update from U.S. Drought Monitor shows that the worst drought conditions are in eastern Montana and western North Dakota:
Northwestern Minnesota continues to see moderate drought:
Significant rain is not expected in northwestern Minnesota in the next several days.
Programming note
You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.