Cool through Monday; a tropical update
Our stretch of warm September weather has hit a speed bump.
Most of southern and central Minnesota will see highs in the 60s Sunday afternoon, although a few spots in the Twin Cities metro area and to the southeast could touch 70 degrees.
Highs in the 50s are expected in about the northern third of Minnesota.
Temperature trends
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We'll start our week with another cool day.
Minnesota highs will be mostly in the 60s on Monday:
Highs rebound into the 70s on Tuesday in central and southern Minnesota:
The Twin Cities metro area could see a high around 76 on Wednesday, then 80 on Thursday and 82 on Friday.
Overdue
Our average monthly temperature is running 3.2 degrees warmer than normal this September in the Twin Cities metro area.
On Saturday, the Twin Cities completed a streak of 8 consecutive days with a high temp that was warmer than normal.
When you look at our average daily temp, which factors in the daily high and low temp, the Twin Cities has been cooler than normal on only 6 of the 16 days this September:
Negative numbers in the "DEP" column show the number of degrees that the average daily temp was below normal on a given day.
I'd say that we were overdue for a couple of cool days!
Rain chances
Southern Minnesota will probably see some showers at times on Monday, with a thunderstorm also possible.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential rain pattern on Monday:
Central Minnesota and the Twin Cities metro area could also see some scattered showers on Monday.
A batch of showers and thunderstorms could move across much of Minnesota Tuesday night into early Wednesday.
Tropical update
Hurricane Jose was 420 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina this Sunday morning.
Jose had max sustained winds of 80 mph and was moving northward:
Here's the Sunday morning update on Hurricane Jose, from the National Hurricane Center:
BULLETIN
Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 48
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
500 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017
...JOSE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER NORTHWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...
...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 71.7W
ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 435 MI...705 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests from North Carolina northward to New England on the east
coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this
system. Tropical storm watches may be needed for portions of this
area during the next day or two.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located
near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 71.7 West. Jose is moving
toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion with
a slight increase in forward speed is expected through early
Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible over the
next couple of days, but Jose is forecast to remain a hurricane
through early Tuesday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,
the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and much of the
U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and
rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas.
For more information, please consult products from your local
weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.
Forecasters are also watching Tropical Storm Maria, which is expected to become a hurricane on Sunday:
Here's the National Hurricane Center's Sunday morning update on Maria:
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
800 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2017
...MARIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 55.6W
ABOUT 410 MI...655 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of France has issued a Hurricane Watch for St.
Martin and St. Barthelemy.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* Guadeloupe
* Dominica
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Anguilla
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Lucia
* Martinique
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles and the British and U. S.
Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of this system.
Additional Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches and Warnings will
likely be issued today.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Maria was
located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 55.6 West. Maria is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this
motion with a further reduction in forward speed is expected over
the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Maria
will be near the Leeward Islands Monday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Maria will likely become a hurricane later today.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area by Monday night or Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions
possible on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
tropical storm watch area on Monday.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and
destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet
above normal tide levels within the hurricane watch area.
RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches across the
central and southern Leeward Islands through Wednesday night. Maria
is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches in the northern
Leeward Islands and north-central Windward Islands. This rainfall
could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
SURF: Swells generated by Maria are expected to begin affecting the
Lesser Antilles by tonight. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
Programming note
You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.