A warm Sunday for southeastern Minnesota; a thunder chance northwest

Our official high temperature reached 90 degrees Saturday at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport.

That tied our record high temp for September 23 in the Twin Cities.

According to the Twin Cities office of the National Weather Service, our official Twin Cities high temperature has only reached 90 degrees or warmer on or after September 22 on ten days since 1873.

I know that’s a little complicated, but 90 degrees is very rare this late in the year!

Temperature trends

Sunday highs are expected to range from the 50s in northwestern Minnesota to upper 80s in the southeast:

On Monday, the cooler air spreads southeastward, with mostly 70s in the southeast:

Twin Cities metro area highs are expected to be in the 60s Tuesday through Friday of this coming week.

Sunday rain chances 

Generous rains are possible Saturday night from southwestern and west-central Minnesota northeastward.

The best chance of showers and thunderstorms on Sunday will be in about the northwestern half of Minnesota, but scattered showers and thunderstorms could spread to the southeast Sunday evening and Sunday night.

Many spots in Minnesota will see some showers on Monday, with a few t-storms also possible.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential rain pattern Sunday through Monday:

NOAA NAM simulated radar from Sunday through Monday, via tropicaltidbits

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the strength of the signal that returns to the radar, not to the amount of rain.

Maria update

Visible to infrared satellite loop of Maria Saturday, via National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

According to the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Maria had max winds of 115 mph late Saturday afternoon.

Here’s the NHC Saturday update:

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
500 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

…MARIA CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD…
…INTERESTS ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA…

 

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…26.3N 72.5W
ABOUT 285 MI…460 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 640 MI…1030 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…115 MPH…185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…950 MB…28.06 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coasts should monitor
the progress of Maria. Tropical storm or hurricane watches may be
needed for a portion of the coast on Sunday.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 72.5 West. Maria is moving
toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), but a turn toward
the north is expected by tonight. A northward motion with a
decrease in forward speed is forecast to then continue through
Monday. On the forecast track, Maria will move away from the
Bahamas and offshore of the southeastern coast of the United
States.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Maria is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. A gradual weakening trend is expected to
begin late Sunday or Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240
miles (390 km).

The minimum central pressure from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane is
950 mb (28.06 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF: Swells generated by Maria are increasing along portions of
the southeastern United States coast and Bermuda and will be
increasing along the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight and Sunday. Swells
also continue to affect Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the
northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the
Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office for more information.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

Here’s the latest info on Maria’s possible track:

National Hurricane Center

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.