A summery Sunday southeast; thunder chances for some areas

Our summery streak continues this Sunday in the Twin Cities metro area and points to our south and east.

The high of 90 degrees Saturday at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport tied our Twin Cities record high for September 23.

The record high for Sunday is 89 degrees, and we just might get there.

Our average Twin Cities high temp is only 68 degrees this time of year!

Temperature trends

Sunday afternoon highs are expected to range from the 50s in the northwest to around 90 in the southeast.

Cooler air spreads southeastward on Monday, so the southeast will see mainly 70s:

A few spots in the far southeast might reach the lower 80s on Monday.

On Tuesday the north will see 50s and most of central and southern Minnesota will top out in the 60s:

Twin Cities metro area highs are expected to stay in the 60s Wednesday through Friday.

Rain chances

The best chance of showers and thunderstorms through Sunday afternoon is expected to be in western and north-central Minnesota.

The rain/thunderstorm chances expand eastward to cover all of Minnesota as we go through Sunday evening and the overnight hours of Sunday night.

Periods of rain are expected over much of Minnesota on Monday and Monday night, with a few thunderstorms also possible.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential rain pattern Sunday evening through Tuesday morning:

NOAA NAM simulated radar from Sunday evening through Tuesday morning, via tropicaltidbits

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the strength of the signal that returns to the radar, not to the amount of rain.

The loop illustrates the general rainfall pattern that is expected, but it will probably rain in some areas that look dry on the loop.

Severe weather outlook

The Storm Prediction Center of the National Weather Service shows a marginal risk of severe weather Sunday and Sunday night from southwestern and central Minnesota into northern Minnesota:

NWS Storm Prediction Center

Marginal risk means that an isolated severe thunderstorm is possible.

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Noon update

The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the marginal risk area to include much of the Twin Cities metro area Sunday and Sunday night:

NWS Storm Prediction Center

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The Minnesota Public Radio Network will let you know if any watches and warnings are issued, and you can also get severe weather updates on the MPR news live weather blog.

Fall colors

The latest fall color report from the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources shows some good fall color in much of northern Minnesota:

Minnesota Department of Natural Resources

Hurricane Maria update

Infrared to visible satellite loop of Maria Sunday morning, via the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

The Sunday morning update from the National Hurricane Center showed that Hurricane Maria had max sustained winds of 105 mph, and was centered 475 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.

Here’s the possible track of Maria over the next few days, from the NHC:

National Hurricane Center

Here are the details of the NHC Sunday morning Maria update:

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

…MARIA SLIGHTLY WEAKER AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD…
…INTERESTS ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA…

 

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…28.7N 72.9W
ABOUT 300 MI…485 KM ENE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 475 MI…765 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…105 MPH…165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…947 MB…27.97 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coasts should monitor
the progress of Maria. Tropical storm or hurricane watches may be
needed for a portion of the coast later today.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 28.7 North, longitude 72.9 West. Maria is moving
toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with
some decrease in forward speed is expected through Monday night. On
the forecast track, the core of Maria will be moving well east of
the southeast coast of the United States during the day or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next
24 hours, but gradual weakening is expected by Monday night or
Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles
(390 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 947 mb (27.97 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF: Swells generated by Maria are increasing along portions of
the southeastern United States coast and Bermuda and will be
increasing along the Mid-Atlantic coast later today. Swells also
continue to affect Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern
coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office for more information.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.