Tropical threats may continue next week
Harvey is still dealing trouble to the Gulf coast states. But an early look at next week's computer models suggest we'll need to watch America's coastlines again for more potential tropical cyclone activity.
Tropical Storm Irma
Tropical Storm Irma became the Atlantic's 9th named storm Wednesday. Irma already shows impressive circulation and deepening convection swirling around the center.
Steady westward track
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Irma is still way out in the eastern Atlantic. But the 5-day track shows a steady westward motion. That likely puts the storm east of the Windward Islands by next Monday. Here's the official National Hurricane Center track.
After that, most models keep Irma moving west, then possibly curving more northwest. This could put the storm somewhere near the Bahamas by late next week. But these spaghetti models are to be viewed with caution this far out.
One early note of concern is the range of solutions from the best weather forecast model on the planet. The current European Model (ECMWF) range of solutions shows many possible U.S. impacts. The still very early guidance suggests it's basically a coin flip between a U.S. landfall and a relatively harmless trip out to sea.
Water temperature and upper wind conditions favor Irma's chances to become a large and intense storm. We'll need to watch her closely in the next week.
Gulf of Mexico storm potential?
We're also watching a possible area for development in the western Gulf of Mexico. Right now odds of development are low at 20% according to NOAA's National Hurricane Center.
Still some model runs have grabbed hold of this system and bring a strong storm into the Gulf next week. The good news here? The models supporting development int he Gulf next week appear to be outliers right now. The latest European model run does not support the idea of a strong storm in the Gulf next week.
Still the tropics look active into next week as we approach the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season in around September 10th.
Stay tuned.