Weird October-like storm Thursday, August trending cool?

The warm summer of 2017 is about to hit an atmospheric speed bump.

July 2017 goes down as yet another warmer than average month in the Twin Cities weather books. Some of Minnesota recorded near average temperatures in July. But the Twin Cities logged yet another warmer than average month.

8 1 July climo

22 for 23

The warmer than average July means 22 of the past 23 months have been warmer than average at MSP Airport.  The 20 month string of warmer than average temperatures that ended in May is the longest on record at MSP.

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may2017_temps
Minnesota Climate Working Group

Temperature data shows basically the past two years have been significantly warmer than average in the Twin Cities. Overall temperatures since August of 2015 have run about 4 degrees warmer than average in the Twin Cities. That's the equivalent climate of the northern suburbs of Omaha.

August wake up call

The upper air pattern is about to change dramatically for the cooler in the next 48 hours over the Upper Midwest. An unseasonably deep low pressure trough dives into Minnesota by Thursday.

8 1 5002
NOAA

Thursday screams more October than August. 60 degrees may be optimistic for many towns Thursday. Temperatures moderate this weekend back into the 70s.

8 1 wxb
NOAA data via Weather Bell

The overall pattern looks cooler than average into next week.

Thursday soaker

The inbound low pressure system deepens and spins into Minnesota Thursday.

8 1 gfs
NOAA GFS via tropical tidbits.

A widespread rainfall event still looks likely for much of Minnesota. I can see many 1"+ rainfall totals by Thursday night. Multi-inch totals are possible especially north of the Twin Cities.

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NOAA NAM model rainfall output via College of Dupage.

This looks odd for August. More like an October soaker.

Stay tuned.