Shower and thunderstorm chances; nice weather on Saturday

Head north if you want some nice weather Friday afternoon.

There will be plenty of clouds over central and southern Minnesota.

Showers are expected over much of southern Minnesota and part of central Minnesota this Friday morning and early Friday afternoon.

Another batch of showers, and a few thunderstorms, could spread into Minnesota later this afternoon and continue into Friday evening and Friday night.

Severe weather outlook

The Storm Prediction Center of the National Weather Service shows a slight risk of severe weather today and tonight for southwestern Minnesota and parts of west-central and south-central Minnesota:

NWS Storm Prediction Center

Slight risk means that scattered severe thunderstorms are possible.

Temperature trends

Friday afternoon highs will be mainly in the 70s across Minnesota.

On Saturday, some spots in northeastern Minnesota will see 70s, with 80s elsewhere in the state:

Northwestern Minnesota could top out in the 70s on Sunday, with 80s over most of Minnesota:

Looking ahead, Twin Cities metro area highs are expected to be in the lower 80s on Monday, followed by upper 70s Tuesday through Friday.

Weekend rain chance

Saturday should be dry over most of Minnesota.

Some scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible on Sunday.

In southern Minnesota and the Twin Cities metro area, the rain chance on Sunday would tend to be mainly from late afternoon into Sunday evening and Sunday night.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model shows the potential rain pattern Sunday and Sunday evening:

NOAA GFS model precipitation rate Saturday night through Sunday evening, via tropicaltidbits

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the rainfall rate (mm per hour), not to the total amount of rain.

Tornado survey results

National Weather Service survey crews confirmed that there were seven tornadoes in southern Minnesota late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.

Here’s the report, from the Twin Cities office of the NWS:

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
519 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

…NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 08/16/2017 TORNADO EVENT…

.OVERVIEW…A band of heavy rain with embedded tornadoes lifted
north through Minnesota during the afternoon and evening of
August 16 2017. NWS Damage Assessment Teams have confirmed 7
tornadoes occurred, see the details below.

.NICOLLET TORNADO 1…

Rating: EF-0
Estimated peak wind: 75-80 mph
Path length /Statute/: 1.5 miles
Path width /Maximum/: 75 yards
Fatalities: 0
Injuries: 0

Start date: 08_16_2017
Start time: 446 PM CDT
Start location: 4 S Nicollet, MN
Start Lat/Lon: 44.2368 / -94.1865

End date: 08_16_2017
End time: 452 PM CDT
End location: 2 S Nicollet, MN
End_lat/lon: 44.2561 / -94.1945

SURVEY_SUMMARY: Tornado developed south of Nicollet and
lifted north northwest. It caused mainly tree damage, but
did hit a farmstead and damaged a garage and grove of
trees.

.NICOLLET TORNADO 2…

Rating: EF-0
Estimated peak wind: 55-60 mph
Path length /Statute/: 0.6 miles
Path width /Maximum/: 25 yards
Fatalities: 0
Injuries: 0

Start date: 08_16_2017
Start time: 504 PM CDT
Start location: 5 S Nicollet, MN
Start Lat/Lon: 44.2296 / -94.1783

End date: 08_16_2017
End time: 509 PM CDT
End location: 4 S Nicollet, MN
End_lat/lon: 44.2380 / -94.1783

SURVEY_SUMMARY: A few minutes later another tornado
developed south of Nicollet and lifted north. It was
observed by a local citizen, and caused mainly crops
and tree damage.

.NEW SWEDEN…

Rating: EF-1
Estimated peak wind: 100-105 mph
Path length /Statute/: 3.1 miles
Path width /Maximum/: 75 yards
Fatalities: 0
Injuries: 0

Start date: 08_16_2017
Start time: 535 PM CDT
Start location: 8 S Gaylord, MN
Start Lat/Lon: 44.4380 / -94.1962

End date: 08_16_2017
End time: 547 PM CDT
End location: 6 SSW Gaylord, MN
End_lat/lon: 44.4704 / -94.2461

SURVEY_SUMMARY: The strongest tornado of the day
developed in northern Nicollet county and lifted into
Sibley county. This was a multi-vortex tornado. Video
shows one vortex struck a farmstead directly
causing significant damage to trees and out buildings.

.WINTHROP #1 TORNADO…

Rating: EF-0
Estimated peak wind: 80 mph
Path length /Statute/: 0.25 miles
Path width /Maximum/: 75 yards
Fatalities: 0
Injuries: 0

Start date: 08_16_2017
Start time: 626 PM CDT
Start location: 4 ENE Winthrop, MN
Start Lat/Lon: 44.5719 / -94.3023

End date: 08_16_2017
End time: 626 PM CDT
End location: 4 ENE Winthrop, MN
End_lat/lon: 44.5719 / -94.3023

SURVEY_SUMMARY: Tornado developed 4 miles ENE of Winthrop and
traveled about 1/4 mile to the north northwest. It flattened
some corn, uprooted a tree, and caused other tree damage.

.WINTHROP #2 TORNADO…

Rating: EF-0
Estimated peak wind: 80 mph
Path length /Statute/: 0.16 miles
Path width /Maximum/: 25 yards
Fatalities: 0
Injuries: 0

Start date: 08_16_2017
Start time: 633 PM CDT
Start location: 3 NNE Winthrop, MN
Start Lat/Lon: 44.5795 / -94.3457

End date: 08_16_2017
End time: 633 PM CDT
End location: 3 NNE Winthrop, MN
End_lat/lon: 44.5795 / -94.3457

SURVEY_SUMMARY: A tornado developed 3 NNE of Winthrop, flattened
corn, destroyed a structurally compromised barn and produced some
tree damage.

.NEW PRAGUE TORNADO…

Rating: EF-0
Estimated peak wind: 55-60 mph
Path length /Statute/: 0.5 miles
Path width /Maximum/: 10 yards
Fatalities: 0
Injuries: 0

Start date: 08_16_2017
Start time: 705 PM CDT
Start location: 2 S New Prague, MN
Start Lat/Lon: 44.5359 / -93.5852

End date: 08_16_2017
End time: 708 PM CDT
End location: 2 SW New Prague, MN
End_lat/lon: 44.5435 / -93.5902

SURVEY_SUMMARY: A weak circulation develop south of New
Prague and moved across the far southwest part of town.
There was minor tree damage which matched up with radar.

.LESTER PRAIRIE TORNADO…

Rating: EF-0
Estimated peak wind: 75 mph
Path length /Statute/: Brief
Path width /Maximum/: 30 yards
Fatalities: 0
Injuries: 0

Start date: 08_16_2017
Start time: 808 PM CDT
Start location: Lester Prairie, MN
Start Lat/Lon: 44.8804 / -94.0469

End date: 08_16_2017
End time: 808 PM CDT
End location: Lester Prairie, MN
End_lat/lon: 44.8804 / -94.0469

SURVEY_SUMMARY: A brief EF-0 tornado on the south side of Lester
Prairie. It uprooted some trees and broke many tree limbs.

 

EF Scale: The Enhanced Fujita Scale Classifies
Tornadoes into the following categories.

EF0…Weak……65 to 85 mph
EF1…Weak……86 to 110 mph
EF2…Strong….111 to 135 mph
EF3…Strong….136 to 165 mph
EF4…Violent…166 To 200 mph
EF5…Violent…>200 mph

NOTE:
The information in this statement is PRELIMINARY and subject to
change pending final review of the events and publication in
NWS Storm Data.

The NWS also released maps of the tornado tracks and the heavy rainfall that occurred over much of central and southern Minnesota Wednesday and Wednesday night.

According to the Twin Cities office of the NWS there have been 35 tornadoes in Minnesota so far this year, and our annual average is 40 tornadoes.

______________________________________________________________________________

Afternoon update:

The Twin Cities NWS office confirmed this afternoon that a tornado touched down Wednesday evening August 16, near Prior Lake:

NWS Twin Cities

That brings our Wednesday total to 8 tornadoes in Minnesota.

________________________________________________________________________________

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.