Periods of rain,and possibly a t-storm
If you have outdoor plans this Thursday, I hope that you have a "plan B".
Most of Minnesota will have periods of rain, and there could also be a few thunderstorms.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential rain pattern:
The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the strength of the signal that returns to the radar, not to the amount of rain.
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The actual rainfall pattern will differ from the forecast rainfall pattern in some areas.
Eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin could see an isolated shower on Friday, but it'll be a much drier day.
Rainfall amounts
Radar estimates show that Alexandria and parts of central Minnesota already received over one inch of rain overnight Wednesday night into early Thursday morning:
A few spots in Morrison county show two inches of rain through early Thursday morning.
Parts of Minnesota could see additional rainfall totals of one inch or more as we go through Thursday.
Severe weather outlook
Storm Prediction Center of the National Weather Service shows a marginal to slight risk of severe weather Thursday and Thursday night over southeastern Minnesota:
Marginal risk indicates that an isolated severe thunderstorm is possible, slight risk indicates that scattered severe thunderstorms are possible.
Temperature trends
Our Thursday temps will stay in the 50s from central through northeastern Minnesota, and will drop from the 60s into the 50s in much of southern Minnesota.
Far northwestern Minnesota will see some afternoon sun at times, and a few spots there might pop into the lower 70s.
Our Twin Cities high temperature has probably already occurred...it was 68 degrees at about one in the morning.
The last time that we had a Twin Cities high temp in the 60s was way back on June 25th!
Friday highs will return to the 70s:
70s will also be common on Saturday:
Most of Minnesota will also see highs in the 70s on Sunday.
Our average high in the Twin Cities is 82 degrees this time of year, but we probably won't see highs in the 80s until Tuesday.
Drought update
The latest update from U.S. Drought Monitor shows that severe to exceptional drought continues in eastern Montana and much of North and South Dakota:
The area of moderate drought in northwestern Minnesota has expanded:
A small part of far southwestern Minnesota is now in moderate drought.
The chart indicates 17.41% of Minnesota is now in moderate drought, compared to 8.02% at this time last week.
The yellow shaded areas on the map are abnormally dry, but not in drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
The U.S. Drought Monitor maps do not take into account any rain that has fallen since 7 a.m. CDT Tuesday.
Programming note:
You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.