Steamy to stormy: Another severe weather risk tonight
"Today will be interesting." - Twin Cities NWS forecast discussion today
You know the Doppler will glow with vivid colors when you hear the word "interesting" from our local meteorologists at the Twin Cities NWS Office. We enjoy a stormy double feature today. Scattered morning storms give way to hazy sun. A steamy air mass drapes around you like a blanket this afternoon. Dew points climb toward the 70 degree mark today. A cold front slices into the tropical air mass to kick off another round of frisky thunderstorms by this evening.
Minnesota weather drama at its finest.
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Steamy afternoon
Locally strong storms this morning dumped some 1" to 2" rains just south of MSP around Lakeville. Our AM storm wave drifts east today. Hazy sunshine returns this afternoon. Dew points surge toward the 70-degree mark. The heat index will push 100 to 105 in western Minnesota today. It feels like New Orleans as far east as the Twin Cities today.
Double feature
The atmosphere destabilizes with our steamy sunshine this afternoon. Right on cue, a cold front initiates convection once again late this afternoon and evening. Look for storms to fire in western Minnesota and march east this evening. NOAA's HRRR model groks the gist of the trend today. AM storms slide east. New storms develop out west and move east tonight.
Note: Users of mesoscale models like this one should use this for a general guide and trends, and not assume specifics on storms locations and timing several hours out. Stay situationally aware and monitor specifics in the hours leading up to possible storms tonight. The highly localized nature of storms means severe weather forecasting is an hour by hour process.
Heavy rainers
Storms tonight may produce all severe weather types. Large hail, damaging winds and even a few tornadoes are possible, especially west of MSP. Heavy rainfall totals of 2" to 4"+ are also possible under stronger storms that may stall. Training storms are also possible tonight. Like boxcars on a train these multiple storms cells can dump impressive rainfall totals on the same spot. The flash flood risk is there tonight.
Bottom Line: Stay situationally aware for another risk of severe storm late this afternoon and tonight across the southern half of Minnesota