Cooling trend; some weekend showers and thunderstorms

It’s not your imagination, June has been warmer than normal.

Through the first 15 days of June, the average monthly temperature at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport is running 8.6 degrees warmer than normal.

It’s been a warm first half of June on a statewide basis too, according to Mark Seeley of the University of Minnesota.

In his WeatherTalk blog that was published today, Seeley stated:

On a statewide basis the mean temperature for the first half of June was 69 degrees F. Only 1933 (71.4°F) and 1988 (70.4°F) were warmer.

It almost has to get cooler.

Cooling trend

Highs this Friday will be in the 70s over much of Minnesota, with a few spots reaching the lower 80s. Our average high temperature is 79 degrees this time of year in the Twin Cities metro area.

Saturday highs will be in the 70s in most spots, with some 60s possible in the northwest:

On Sunday, 60s will cover much of Minnesota, with some lower 70s southeast:

We’ll have no need for air conditioning on Father’s Day!

Rain chances

Some showers are moving through southern Minnesota this Friday morning, and there have been a few rumbles of thunder. Scattered showers and thunderstorms could redevelop this afternoon, especially in southern and central Minnesota.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible statewide this Friday evening and overnight Friday night.

On Saturday, we’ll probably start out with a few scattered showers, then we’ll have areas of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential rain pattern:

NOAA NAM simulated radar Saturday through Saturday night, via tropicaltidbits

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the strength of the signal that returns to the radar, not to the amount of rain.

On Sunday, we’re expecting a smaller chance of scattered showers.

Severe weather outlook

The Storm Prediction Center of the National Weather Service shows that the greatest potential for severe weather this afternoon through tonight is over parts of Iowa, eastern Nebraska, and northern Missouri:

NWS Storm Prediction Center

The slight risk area, which indicates the potential for scattered severe weather, touches parts of far southern Minnesota.

A marginal risk (isolated severe weather potential) covers much of southern Minnesota, and extends as far north as Mankato.

On Saturday, the marginal risk area reaches only the far southeastern tip of Minnesota:

NWS Storm Prediction Center

For the latest on severe weather, you can listen to the Minnesota Public Radio Network , and check out the MPR News Live weather blog.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m. and 9:35 a.m. each Saturday and Sunday.