Mixed sun, spotty showers today; week-long dry spell?

All that sunshine yesterday was good tonic for the soul. If the forecast for the next week holds, your soul may be in sunshine overflow mode.

First we deal with a few spotty passing showers across Minnesota today.

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Weak low-pressure system

A weak low-pressure trough is enough to kick off spotty showers and a few thundershowers today. The rain squalls should be isolated "pulse-type" cells. They'll pop up, rain out and move on withing a matter of 10-20 minutes in most places. There may be some brief downpours and thunder claps, but no severe risk area is out for Minnesota today.

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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's North American Mesoscale Forecast System 3 km model captures the notion of this type of localized convection today.

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NOAA NAM 3 km resolution model via tropical tidbits.

Week-long dry spell ahead?

After today's spotty shower threat, the upper air pattern evolves into what meteorologists call and omega block. The wavy jet stream pattern gets its name because it looks like the Greek letter omega.

The upper air forecast for next Monday shows Minnesota riding the warm ridge in between two spinning low-pressure storms anchored on the coasts.

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NOAA

Sunshine and unicorns

Depending on which model you believe, this pattern should yield five to seven-plus dry days in a row for Minnesota and the Upper Midwest. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model is nothing but sunshine and unicorns starting tomorrow right through next week.

How's your Celsius to Fahrenheit conversion skill set these days?

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ECMWF model forecast for the Twin Cities via Norwegian Met Institute. Temperatures in degrees Celsius.

70s on the way

NOAA's temperature database came around to my thinking yesterday. A warmer temperature pattern with some 70s ahead in the next few days looks likely.

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NOAA via Weather Bell

Welcome dry spell

The dry forecast is music to Minnesota farmers ears. Planting is running a good 10 days behind average this year compared to recent years. Here's the latest Minnesota Crop Report.

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Source: USDA
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Taste of summer next week

Next week looks warmer. Highs in the 70s look likely Monday and Tuesday. The warmth may peak Tuesday afternoon, a growing chance for temperatures in the 80s in Minnesota and possibly the Twin Cities.

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NOAA GFS temperature output for 7 pm next Tuesday via tropical tidbits.

That should jump start newly planted crops. Can mosquitoes be far behind?