April was 20th straight warmer than average month in Twin Cities

Twenty in a row.

That's the length of the string of warmer than average months now at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport. St Cloud, Minn., also recorded the 20th straight warmer than average month in April.

Unprecedented climate event 

The string of 20 consecutive warmer than average months in the Twin Cities is unprecedented. The last cooler than average month at MSP was August 2015.

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Temperatures over the past 20 months at MSP Airport are running 4.5 degrees warmer than average by my math. That's much more typical of the climate of Omaha, Neb., than the Twin Cities. Here's the updated running tally of warmer than average months at MSP Airport. I've added the April numbers at the bottom.

20 month warm streak
Data from NOAA via Minnesota DNR Climate Working Group.

Here's more perspective from the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources State Climatology Office on the record as of early April. I expect they will update this to include the April temperature data soon.

[image]

The Twin Cities have not recorded average monthly temperatures that were below 1981-2010 normals since August 2015. This is the longest above-average monthly temperature streak of any kind on record in the Twin Cities, though it is worth noting that the "normals" refresh every 10 years, and procedures for calculating them have changed over time.

As of this writing, only five months out of the last 34 (back to June 2014) have been below normal in the Twin Cities. The second longest streak on record was 16 months, from June 2011 through September 2012.

This climatological decade (beginning January 2011), over 70% of months have been above the 1981-2010 normals. In the previous climatological decade, 68% of months were above the 1971-2000 normals, and the Twin Cities has not had a string of 10 or more cool months since 1964-65.

Indeed, the whole of Minnesota has been warming rapidly since about 1970, making above-normal temperatures more likely than below-normal ones, even as the baseline values are updated to reflect the warmer conditions.

Outlook for May

After Monday's chilly start, temperatures for the next week look close to average for the Twin Cities. Next week appears to be trending warmer than average. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's experimental 3-4 week temperature outlook favors equal chances for above and below average temperatures across Minnesota as we move into late May.

5 22 WK34temp
NOAA

Will may be the 21st straight warmer than average month in the Twin Cities?

Stay tuned.