Winter storm warning much of southern Minn. Sunday; winter weather advisory SW metro starts Sunday afternoon

A low pressure system will track to our south Sunday and Sunday night, bringing snow to southern and central Minnesota. The heaviest snow is expected over southwestern and south-central Minnesota.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model shows the possible snow pattern, and the areas that could see the highest snow totals:

rt0311snoloop3
NOAA GFS model snow accumulation from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon, via College of DuPage

Purple shaded areas indicate potential accumulations of more than 6 inches.

Forecast plumes of several computer models show an average of about 4 inches of snow for Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport (airport id KMSP):

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rt0311plume
NOAA model snowfall amounts, via Iowa State University

The Twin Cities metro area could see a wide range of snow totals Sunday afternoon through Sunday night.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the far northeastern part of the 7 county metro area ends up with 1 to 3 inches of snow, while the far southwest metro sees some 4 to 6 inch totals.

A change in the track of the low pressure system will change snow amounts in Minnesota and western Wisconsin, so check for forecast updates.

Warnings and advisories

A winter storm warning is in effect from 10 a.m. Sunday to 7 a.m. Monday for much of southwestern Minnesota and south-central Minnesota:

rt0311adv2
NWS Twin Cities

Here are some details of the winter storm warning:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN

926 PM CST Sat Mar 11 2017

...HEAVY SNOW COMING SUNDAY FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL

MINNESOTA...

.A winter storm warning is in effect Sunday afternoon through

Sunday night along the Minnesota River Valley in west central

Minnesota to the I-90 corridor in south central Minnesota. A

winter weather advisory is now in effect north of the warning up

to Alexandria, Minneapolis, and Red Wing.

Snowfall accumulations of 6 to 9 inches are expected within the

warning, with 3 to 6 inches anticipated within the advisory area.

Snow will begin moving into western Minnesota after 6am Monday

morning and move into the Twin Cities shortly after noon Sunday.

The heaviest snow is expected Sunday afternoon into the evening,

with snowfall slowly tapering off from northwest to southeast

Sunday night into Monday morning.

MNZ055>057-065-067-075-121130-

/O.UPG.KMPX.WS.A.0004.170312T1500Z-170313T1200Z/

/O.EXA.KMPX.WS.W.0003.170312T1500Z-170313T1200Z/

Swift-Chippewa-Kandiyohi-Renville-Sibley-Nicollet-

Including the cities of Benson, Montevideo, Willmar, Olivia,

Gaylord, and St Peter

926 PM CST Sat Mar 11 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM CDT

MONDAY...

The National Weather Service in Twin Cities/Chanhassen has issued

a Winter Storm Warning for snow, which is in effect from 10 AM

Sunday to 7 AM CDT Monday. The Winter Storm Watch is no longer in

effect.

* Snow will quickly move in Sunday morning, with the heaviest snow

expected during Sunday afternoon. Snow will slowly taper off

after midnight Sunday night.

* Total snow accumulations of 6 to 9 inches are possible.

* Significant reductions in visibility are possible.

* Plan on difficult driving conditions.

Precautionary/Preparedness actions...

A winter storm warning for snow means severe winter weather

conditions are expected. If you must travel...keep an extra

flashlight...food and water in your vehicle in case of an

emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are

calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

Three counties in far southwestern Minnesota are in a winter weather advisory Sunday and Sunday night:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD

954 PM CST Sat Mar 11 2017

MNZ089-097-098-SDZ038>040-054>056-062-121200-

/O.CON.KFSD.WW.Y.0007.170312T1200Z-170313T0900Z/

Nobles-Pipestone-Rock-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Miner-Lake-Moody-

Minnehaha-

954 PM CST Sat Mar 11 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO

4 AM CDT MONDAY...

* TIMING...Expect snow to develop around 7 AM Sunday and then

diminish around 4 AM Monday.

* PRECIPITATION RATES...The heaviest snowfall rates will occur

between noon and 6 PM Sunday.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...Total snow accumulations of 3 to 7 inches

are expected.

* WINDS / VISIBILITIES...Look for reduced visibilities at times.

* IMPACTS...Plan on difficult driving conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A winter weather advisory for snow means periods of snow will

cause primarily travel difficulties. be prepared for snow covered

roads and limited visibilities...and use caution while driving.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can

be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

The southwestern half of the Twin Cities metro area is in a winter weather advisory from 1 p.m. Sunday to 1 p.m. Monday.  In west-central Minnesota, a winter weather advisory begins at 7 a.m. Sunday:

rt0311adv3
NWS Twin Cities

Details of the advisory, from the Twin Cities office of the NWS:

MNZ059-060-068>070-077-078-121130-

/O.UPG.KMPX.WS.A.0004.170312T1800Z-170313T2100Z/

/O.NEW.KMPX.WW.Y.0009.170312T1800Z-170313T1800Z/

Wright-Hennepin-Carver-Scott-Dakota-Rice-Goodhue-

Including the cities of Monticello, Minneapolis, Chaska,

Shakopee, Hastings, Faribault, and Red Wing

926 PM CST Sat Mar 11 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM CDT

MONDAY...

The National Weather Service in Twin Cities/Chanhassen has issued

a Winter Weather Advisory for snow, which is in effect from 1 PM

Sunday to 1 PM CDT Monday. The Winter Storm Watch is no longer in

effect.

* Snow will quickly move in after noon Sunday, with the heaviest

snow expected during Sunday afternoon into the evening. Snow

will slowly taper off late Sunday night into Monday morning.

* Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are expected.

* Plan on difficult driving conditions Sunday afternoon and evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means that periods of snow

will cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow

covered roads and limited visibilities...and use caution while

driving.

Southeastern Minnesota is in a winter storm watch from 4 p.m. Sunday through Monday afternoon.

Here is a summary from the NWS, with possible snow totals from Sunday through early Monday:

rt0311story2
NWS Twin Cities

Updates

Minnesota Public Radio will keep you updated on this winter storm.

Updated weather information will also be posted on the MPR news live weather blog.

You can also check with the Twin Cities office, La Crosse, WI office and Sioux Falls, SD office of the National Weather Service for weather updates. The NWS sites have clickable maps for the forecast at your specific location.

The Minnesota Department of Transportation and Wisconsin Department of Transportation will have current road conditions.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.