Snowstorm update

Southern Minnesota will see the highest snow accumulations this Sunday afternoon and Sunday night, as a low pressure system passes to our south.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model shows the projected snow pattern, and the areas that could see the highest snow totals:

rt0312snoloop2
NOAA GFS model snow accumulation from Sunday through Monday afternoon, via College of DuPage

Purple shaded areas indicate potential accumulations of more than 6 inches.

Plumes from several forecast models show an average of about 4 inches of snow for Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport (airport id KMSP):

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rt0312plume
NOAA model snowfall amounts for MSP, via Iowa State University

The Twin Cities metro area could see a wide range of snow totals from Sunday afternoon through Sunday night.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the far northeastern part of the 7 county Twin Cities metro area ends up with 2 to 3 inches of snow, while the far southwestern part of the metro area ends up with some 4 to 5 inch totals.

A change in the track or speed of the low pressure system will change snow amounts in Minnesota and western Wisconsin, so check for forecast updates.

Warnings and advisories

Here's a summary of this winter storm, from the Twin Cities office of the National Weather Service:

rt0312story2
NWS Twin Cities

Winter storm warnings are in effect for much of southern Minnesota this Sunday afternoon through Sunday night.

The winter storm warning runs until 7 a.m. Monday in southwestern Minnesota and parts of west-central Minnesota, and until 1 p.m. Monday in southcentral Minnesota.  In southeastern Minnesota, the winter storm warning continues until 7 p.m. Monday.

Here are some winter storm warning details:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN

1059 AM CDT Sun Mar 12 2017

...HEAVY SNOW TODAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND

SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

.A winter storm warning remains in effect this afternoon through

tonight along the Minnesota River Valley in west central

Minnesota to the I-90 corridor in south central Minnesota. A

winter weather advisory is in effect north of the warning up to

the I-94 corridor, including Alexandria, St Cloud, the Twin Cities

metro, and Eau Claire.

Snowfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches are expected within the

warning, with 3 to 6 inches anticipated within the advisory area.

Snow, heavy at times, will spread into south central Minnesota

this afternoon. Snow will move into the Twin Cities early this

afternoon, and Eau Claire by mid to late afternoon. The heaviest

snow is expected this afternoon and evening, with snowfall rates

of around an inch an hour likely in the warning area. The snow

will slowly taper off from northwest to southeast tonight into

Monday morning.

MNZ076-077-083>085-092-093-130000-

/O.CON.KMPX.WS.W.0003.170312T1800Z-170313T1800Z/

Le Sueur-Rice-Blue Earth-Waseca-Steele-Faribault-Freeborn-

Including the cities of Le Sueur, Faribault, Mankato, Waseca,

Owatonna, Blue Earth, and Albert Lea

1059 AM CDT Sun Mar 12 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT MONDAY...

* Snow will develop early, with the heaviest snow expected this

afternoon into the evening. Snowfall rates around an inch an

hour expected. Snow will slowly taper off late tonight into

Monday morning.

* Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches are possible.

* Significant reductions in visibility are possible, along with

patchy blowing snow.

* Plan on difficult driving conditions.

Precautionary/Preparedness actions...

A winter storm warning for snow means severe winter weather

conditions are expected. If you must travel...keep an extra

flashlight...food and water in your vehicle in case of an

emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are

calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

A winter weather advisory covers areas to the north of the winter storm warning, including the Twin Cities metro area.

Here are some details of the winter weather advisory, from the Twin Cities office of the NWS:

MNZ060>063-068>070-130000-

/O.CON.KMPX.WW.Y.0009.170312T1800Z-170313T1500Z/

Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-Carver-Scott-Dakota-

Including the cities of Minneapolis, Blaine, St Paul, Stillwater,

Chaska, Shakopee, and Hastings

1059 AM CDT Sun Mar 12 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT

MONDAY...

* Snow will quickly move in after noon, with the heaviest snow

expected during this afternoon and evening. Snow will slowly

taper off late tonight into Monday morning.

* Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are expected.

* Plan on difficult driving conditions developing this afternoon

and evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means that periods of snow

will cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow

covered roads and limited visibilities...and use caution while

driving.

Parts of northeastern Minnesota are in a winter weather advisory Sunday evening and Sunday night:

rt0312advdlh2
NWS Duluth

Details of the advisory:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Duluth MN

1200 PM CDT Sun Mar 12 2017

...SNOW FOR THE NORTH SHORE AND THE CITY OF SUPERIOR THIS EVENING

THROUGH MONDAY...

.Parts of the North Shore along with the city of Superior will

receive several inches of snow, including the Duluth and Two

Harbors area. Snow will spread into the region from west to east

this afternoon, with most of the snow falling tonight through

early Monday morning. Higher amounts of snow are possible if the

snow band becomes stationary.

MNZ020-037-130300-

/O.CON.KDLH.WW.Y.0012.170313T0000Z-170314T0000Z/

Southern Lake/North Shore-Carlton/South St. Louis-

Including the cities of Two Harbors, Silver Bay, and Duluth

1200 PM CDT Sun Mar 12 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS

EVENING TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY...

* LOCATIONS...Duluth to Silver Bay.

* TIMING...7 PM this evening until 7 PM Monday.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...3 to 5 inches with locally higher amounts.

* IMPACTS...The snow will create snow covered roads and poor

travel conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A winter weather advisory for snow means that accumulating snow

will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered

roads and reduced visibility and use caution while driving. Allow

extra time to reach your destination.

Updates

Minnesota Public Radio will keep you updated on this winter storm.

Updated weather information will also be posted on the MPR news live weather blog.

You can also check with the Twin Cities office, La Crosse, WI office, Duluth office and Sioux Falls, SD office of the National Weather Service for weather updates. The NWS sites have clickable maps for the forecast at your specific location.

The Minnesota Department of Transportation and Wisconsin Department of Transportation will have current road conditions.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.