MSP rides snowy edge tonight, winter storm warnings south

Call it a January comeback.

A winter storm takes aim at southern Minnesota in the next 24 hours with several inches of wet sloppy snow. The Twin Cities rides the northern edge of the snow zone, with slushy snow overnight into your Wednesday morning commute.

This March-like snow event will be wet with a high water content. The system is fairly warm for January. Temperatures hover in the 30s tonight as snow struggles to accumulate to serious depth.

The bigger weather picture?

• Our January thaw has reached record proportions.

• A colder more typical wintry air mass arrives this weekend.

• February appears ready to arrive on a chilly note.

Pitchers and catchers report to Twins spring training in 20 days, on Feb. 13.

Slop storm

Our inbound January low-pressure system looks more like March on the maps. This relatively warm system spawns several inches of wet sloppy snow across southern Minnesota and northern Iowa tonight.

Travel south of the Twin Cities will be difficult tonight, and the Twin Cities morning commute will be wet to slick in spots. Watch the Twin Cities ride the northern edge of the snow zone as the parent low glides through Iowa toward Madison, Wis., and Milwaukee.

Slower timing

The latest model runs have slowed the system a bit, That's likely good news for the Twin Cities evening commute as snow probably holds off until later this evening.

Future radar suggests snow may begin in the Twin Cities this evening between about 8 p.m. and 11 p.m.

Bust potential?

The Twin Cities will probably pick up the expected 1 inch  to 3 inches-plus sloppy snowfall by midday Wednesday, but this storm does have some bust potential for the Twin Cities. If the storm track shifts any farther south, much of the Twin Cities could end up on the drier edge of what looks like a tight snowfall gradient across the metro from northwest to southeast.

As it stands now, the northwest metro may squeeze out an inch or so. Most of the central Twin Cities lies in the probable 1- to 3-inch zone. The best chance for 3 to 4 inches favors Dakota County and southeast metro towns like Lakeville and Red Wing. If the storm jogs south, snowfall totals for the Twin Cities could do the same.

I have much higher confidence in some 5- to 10-inch snowfall totals in towns like Fairmont, Austin and Rochester along the Interstate 90 corridor in southern Minnesota southward into Iowa.

Here's the latest winter storm briefing from the La Crosse, Wis., National Weather Service office.

January thaw reaches record proportions

Welcome to day No. 8 in a row of above freezing temperature in the Twin Cities and most of Minnesota. We managed to string together four straight days, and nights, above freezing in the Twin Cities. That sets a new record for the longest run of above freezing temps for the Twin Cities in January.

17th straight warm month

After a cold start, January is now running 3.1 degrees warmer than average at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport. It now looks like January will finish as the 17th straight warmer than average month in the Twin Cities.

Freeze returns this weekend

Temperatures return to freezing levels later this week. Signs point to an even colder shot of air as February approaches. Here's the latest 15-day temperature output for MSP, via Custom Weather.

The colder weather is good news for the U.S. Pond Hockey Championships on Lake Nokomis. I'm happy we'll get some pond hockey in for the Twin Cities this weekend, even though we got 'thawed out' last weekend in Excelsior at the North American Pond Hockey Championships.

Stay tuned.