Enough snow to shovel and plow this weekend

As a meteorologist, it's always interesting to hear snow conversations when I'm out and about.

At the grocery store or health club there's often a wide range of thoughts about the coming snow.

One person will say something like "I heard it starts Saturday night and we'll only get 2 inches".

Another might say "no, it starts in the afternoon and we'll get more than 5 inches by Sunday morning".

Somebody else might say "I heard 9 inches".

The problem might be that some people hear or see old forecasts, or forecasts that are for a different part of Minnesota.

I usually just listen.

Maybe I should just tell people to read the Updraft blog and/or listen to Minnesota Public Radio!

Weekend snow

This morning's computer model information is now available, so here we go.

Snow will likely start over southwestern Minnesota Saturday morning, then spread over central and southern Minnesota during the afternoon.

Snow is expected to continue over central and southern Minnesota Saturday night and Sunday morning, tapering off during the afternoon. Northern Minnesota will see some lighter snow Saturday night and Sunday morning.

Here’s the simulated radar for Saturday through Sunday morning, from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s 4km resolution North American Mesoscale forecast model:

The heaviest snow amounts, over 6 inches, will tend to be over far southern Minnesota.

Here's an early estimate of snow totals, courtesy of the Twin Cities office of the National Weather Service:

You'll notice that the northern part of the Twin Cities metro area is in the 2 to 3 inch range, while the far south metro is in the 4 to 6 inch range.

That's not unusual for this time of weather system, which is passing to our south and spinning moisture up over Minnesota.

These snow amounts seem reasonable to me, based on the model information currently available, but check later forecast updates.

A range of possible snow amounts

Forecasters look at several forecast models, and sometimes different versions of the same model, when making snow forecasts.

For the forecast point of Minneapolis, NOAA's models give us from 2 inches t0 11 inches of snow by Sunday afternoon. A forecaster's job is to see what the most trusted models are saying, and weigh other factors that could affect our snow totals.

The average of all the models in the snow forecast plume is around 6 inches, but that seems a bit high.  4 or 5 inches will probably be a good expectation for the bulk of the metro area.

The National Weather Service has an experimental snow forecast product that is very interesting:

Is it helpful, or does it cause confusion, to know the minimum and maximum amount of snow that your area could see this weekend?

There is a link on the NWS page to give them your feedback.

Minnesota snow depth

Snow lovers in southern Minnesota are happy to see the weekend forecast.

This latest snow depth map from the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources shows more than 4 inches over most of northern Minnesota, with more than 8 inches over much of the far north:

There is little or no snow cover over most of southern and central Minnesota.

Cold temps

Our average high temp is 29 degrees in the Twin Cities right now.

We will have cooler than normal temps this weekend, with lots of teens tomorrow:

Northern Minnesota will have highs in the single digits.

Highs on Sunday will be a few degrees warmer, but still cooler than normal:

By Tuesday, we might see some below zero highs in northern Minnesota, and single digits in much of the central and south.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.