Tuesday slop storm, better travel Wednesday

What Thanksgiving week would be complete without a little snow for holiday travelers?

Our next inbound low pressure wave brings a messy wintry mix Tuesday into Wednesday morning. The system looks wet and sloppy, with temperatures hovering near or above freezing most of Tuesday. That should mean mainly wet roads…and a few more inches of slushy snow on your lawn. Throw in a little ice, and some rain southeast of the metro and you’ve got a very messy Tuesday on tap.

Slow moving low

The slow moving low pressure system tracks south through Iowa Tuesday. The slow motion means a potentially longer duration event for Minnesota. Snow may not come down gangbusters, but it will add up over time. A little ice may mix in Tuesday morning. Travel south throuhg Iowa features mostly rain.

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NOAA’s GFS model is the most aggressive with snowfall totals. The GFS notion of a band of 3″ to 7″ seems a bit high for the bulk of the Twin Cities, but I can’t rule it out. with compaction and some melting it looks like a general 2″ to 5″ swath including most of the metro seems more likely, but stay tuned.

NOAA GFS snowfall via tropicaltidbits

Temperatures above freezing for most of the events should translate into mostly wet roads. The dicey hours could be early Tuesday and Wednesday mornings when temps hover near the freezing mark. Warmer air to the south means just wet travel through Iowa and to Chicago.

NOAA

Snowier pattern ahead?

Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day looks mostly dry. A second follow on system Thanksgiving night could bring another couple inches of snow. Overall the pattern looks more active for periodic snowfall events in the Upper Midwest the next 10 days. The cold air is finally here, every passing low brings the chance for another snowy shot. It looks like we’ll build some snow cover across the region in the next 10 days.

GFS snowfall output via tropicaltidbits.com

A foot on the ground close to MSP by December 1st?

Stay tuned.