Instant winter: Blizzard and winter storm warnings fly
Minnesota's weather this fall has been like a Charlie Brown Thanksgiving. Just when the weather maps look promising for a shot of winter, Lucy pulls the football away and mild weather continues for another week.
Not this time.
Blizzard and winter storm warnings cover a big chunk of Minnesota Friday. This well advertised first major wintry storm of the season expands across Minnesota through Friday. You know it's for real when the Twin Cities NWS deploys the snowboard and snow meter for the winter season.
Model consensus
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Forecast model runs continue to show remarkable consistency in storm track just southeast of MSP and placing the heavy snow band across western and northern Minnesota. That's always a little scary for us as meteorologists, but raises confidence in a high impact heavy snow and wind event west and north of MSP. The Twin Cities NWS isn't pulling any punches. From balmy to blizzard in 12 hours? Welcome to Minnesota.
Anatomy of a November snowstorm
This system is pretty classic on the maps. A wound up low pressure system races northeast. Mild air ahead of the storm means rain. Cold air behind cranks out snow. Here's the latest in a series of remarkably consistent storm tracks from NOAA's GFS model.
That track lays out the heaviest snow bands across western and northern Minnesota. The best chance for 12" to 18" falls across the Iron Range to International Falls and Ely. The Twin Cities rides the edge of a tight snow gradient to the northwest. Travel conditions along roads like I-94 between St. Cloud and Alexandria will deteriorate rapidly Friday.
Twin Cities: Rain to snow Friday
The system looks warm enough for mostly rain int he Twin Cities Friday morning. By midday, the rain snow line pushes into the metro, and rain changes quickly to wet wind-driven snow. Temperatures and pavement will hover above freezing, so it will take a while for any accumulation. Roads may stay just wet for most of the afternoon, but snowfall rates may produce some slick roads by late PM. The northwest metro stands the best chance for seeing any shovelable accumulations of 1" to 3".
One note of caution. Any further storm track shift east could increase snowfall in the metro.
High winds
Wind gusts from 40 to 50+ mph will whip snow around with a fury Friday. Seriously folks, travel is going to be downright dangerous across much of Minnesota Friday.
Around the horn: Heaviest snow and highest winds west and north
Northern Minnesota is the bull's eye for a foot plus. Here's the view from the Duluth NWS.
The Red River Valley rides the northwest edge.
The open landscape in western Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas is ground zero for blizzard conditions.
The Sioux Falls NWS covers southwest Minnesota counties and towns.
We'll have extra storm coverage on MPR News Friday. Look for the severe weather live blog on our front page. Please share your photos and storm reports with our Public Insight Network and we can include them in our coverage.
Stay safe during this first salvo of the winter weather season!