Matthew: Charleston next. Loss estimates $25 to $30 billion
Hurricane Matthew continues to scrape the U.S. southeast coast. Matthew is still a dangerous storm capable of significant storm surge and hurricane force winds. The storm continues to track almost parallel to the southeast U.S. coastline.
BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 PM EDT FRI OCT 07 2016
...HURRICANE MATTHEW CAUSES DEVASTATION ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 80.7W
ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM S OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES
A fortunate eastward jog
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Matthew sprung some surprises during it's trek, taking a slight but critical jog to the east last night. Watch the loop below closely and you can see the slight eastward deflection after Matthew slammed into Grand Bahama Island last night.
That slight...roughly 20 mile eastward jog kept the bulk of the eyewall, and it's 100 mph winds, just offshore for most of the Florida coast.
Just east, winds gusted to over 100 mph at Kennedy Space Center a mere 7 miles east of Florida's main coastline. Had those 100+ mph winds raked the length of the coast as forecast model consensus predicted Thursday, the minor to moderate damage we're now seeing with Matthew would have been catastrophic.
Still there is significant damage and storm surge flooding along Florida's east coast.
Storm surge inundated streets in the city of St. Augustine, Florida.
Tragedy in Haiti
By far the most tragic story from Matthew continues to be in Haiti. The tragic direct hit from Matthew was devastating. The BBC now reports the death toll likely exceeds 800.
Georgia and South Carolina next
Matthew continues to track along the now eastward curving coast of Georgia and South Carolina. The offical NHC track follows the coast, dangerously close to a landfall in South Carolina Saturday.
The curvy Georgia and South Carolina Coasts are even more vulnerable to surge flooding than Florida. As Matthew pushes water into the concave coastal curve, it has nowhere to go but inland. As much as 3 feet of surge could inundate parts of Charleston according to the latest NOAA storm surge forecasts.
Multi-billion dollar disaster
Insurers are working overtime today updating models that predict eventual catastrophic losses from Matthew. The latest figures from RMS crank out eventual cat losses of $25 to $30 billion in U.S. insured losses.
Here's more from Reuters.
LONDON, Oct 7 A hurricane threatening the first direct hit on the United States in more than a decade could cause insurance losses of $25-30 billion and be the second costliest U.S. hurricane on record for insurers, according to initial industry estimates.
Hurricane Matthew is just off the east coast of Florida near Cape Canaveral, the National Hurricane Center said in an advisory on Friday, after killing at least 339 people in Haiti on its move north through the Caribbean.
Data modelling firm RMS has told clients its initial estimates were a 42 percent chance of a $20 billion insurance loss and a 26 percent chance of a $30 billion loss from the hurricane, a source familiar with the research said.
Ben Brookes, vice president capital markets at RMS told Reuters its guidance to clients was based on a forecast from earlier in the week.
"We have continued to update our guidance as the situation changes," Brookes said, without giving further details.
An estimate from Kinetic Analysis of insured losses of $25 billion would make Matthew "the second most costly hurricane in U.S. history behind Katrina", JPMorgan analysts said in a note late Thursday, referring to the hurricane which hit New Orleans and the surrounding coast in 2005.
Florida partially dodged a bullet with Matthew. We're not done yet.
Stay tuned.
Season's first frost advisories for metro
I've talked on weather chats all week on MPR News about a likely frost Saturday morning.
It's here.
Frost advisories and freeze warnings are up for most of Minnesota.
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MINNEAPOLIS...ST PAUL...STILLWATER...GAYLORD...CHASKA...SHAKOPEE...HASTINGS...REDWOOD FALLS...NEW ULM...ST PETER...LE SUEUR...FARIBAULT...RED WING...ST JAMES...MANKATO...WASECA...OWATONNA...FAIRMONT...BLUE EARTH...
ALBERT LEA...RIVER FALLS...PRESCOTT...DURAND
210 PM CDT FRI OCT 7 2016
...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY.
* TEMPERATURE...LOW TO MID 30S.
* IMPACTS...SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL BE DAMAGED OR KILLED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED.
Temperatures warm once again into Monday, when we hit 70 in the Twin Cities.
Stay warm Minnesota!