Freeze arrives, wet summer impacts Minnesota wine grapes

Minnesota's Cold Season

Winter. Road construction. We've all heard about Minnesota's famed 'two seasons.'

In reality, most of Minnesota is classified as a "humid continental climate" according to the Köppen climate classification system. That means we have a rigorous winter season with warm humid summers.

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Wikipedia Commons. By Peel, M. C., Finlayson, B. L., and McMahon, T. A.(University of Melbourne)Enhanced, modified, and vectorized by Ali Zifan. - Hydrology and Earth System Sciences: "Updated world map of the Köppen-Geiger climate classification" (Supplement)[1]Legend explanation, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=47086879

Spring and fall in Minnesota? Usually weather whiplash between seasonal extremes.

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In some ways it makes sense to think of Minnesota as having a warm season and a cold season. These practical definitions may be loose, but warm season to me generally implies no freezing temps. No scraping ice off your driveway, sidewalk or car windshield. Flowers still blooming. Grass still green and growing.

Welcome to Minnesota's cold season.

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INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MINNEAPOLIS...BLAINE...ST PAUL... STILLWATER...GAYLORD...CHASKA...SHAKOPEE...HASTINGS... REDWOOD FALLS...NEW ULM...ST PETER...LE SUEUR...FARIBAULT... RED WING...ST JAMES...MANKATO...WASECA...OWATONNA...FAIRMONT...BLUE EARTH...ALBERT LEA...HUDSON...RIVER FALLS...PRESCOTT...MENOMONIE...DURAND...CHIPPEWA FALLS...EAU CLAIRE

252 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2016

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM CDT

THURSDAY...

* TEMPERATURE...UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30.

* IMPACTS...MOST UNCOVERED VEGETATION WILL FREEZE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

Freeze recipe

The recipe for a freezing night? Clearing skies, light winds and longer October nights. Temps fall into the low 20s and 20s across much of the Upper Midwest Thursday morning. Cover up those tender flowers if you want to keep them around a few more days.

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NOAA via College of Dupage

Freeze warnings and frost advisories cover a good chunk of the Upper Midwest. Shades of deep blue are returning the maps.

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NOAA

Warm front ahead

Our next fall warm front blows back north by Friday.

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NOAA

Friday's stiff southerly breeze boosts temps back into the 60s across Minnesota.  Shower chances arrives by late Saturday. Metro temps peak near 70 by Monday. Cooler weather returns next week.

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Twin Cities 15-day meteogram via Custom Weather.

Longer range forecast: Looks like fall

Looking ahead into late October the overall weather pattern looks colder. That's not a big shock of course, but a departure from what's seemed like perpetual warmth over the past 7 months.

Right now I don't see any early season snows on the horizon. But the overall weather pattern looks dicey to me. I won't be shocked if we get an early snowfall in late October or early November this year. I actually started looking for the snow stakes for my driveway the other day.

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NOAA GFS 16-day output via IPS Meteostar

Stay tuned.

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Wet conditions in vineyards this fall at the UM Landscape Arboretum. Image: John Thull

Minnesota grapes reacting to wet summer

I checked in again with Minnesota grape expert John Thull at the Minnesota Landscape Arboretum recently. John tells me the extreme rainfall this summer did have an impact. Some grapes look really good, but he's also observing some increase in disease on grapes this year.

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John Thull. UM Landscape Arboretum

Hi Paul,

Harvest is picking up around the state.

Last week things were still really wet. It's been drying down nicely in the last few days, and we can get back into parts of the field that were under water for basically all through August and into September. Wettest conditions ever in August!

The leaves are showing more disease stress this year and some fruit is breaking down from all the rain. There are still many grapes out there that look good, especially where the rainfall has not been as severe.

That's all for now.

Take care,

John

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Image: John Thull. UM Landscape Arboretum