Brilliant weekend ahead, 6 dry days in a row?

Custom Weather

You spongy lawn is about to get a break.

Our persistent southwest upper air flow this summer has dumped an extra 5 to 10+ inches of rainfall for many of us. Now, a pattern change to northwest flow aloft brings drier breezes starting Saturday and very likely lasting through next Thursday. Just what the weather doctor ordered for farmers with fields under standing water and others who want drier weather conditions.

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Twin Cities forecast via Twin Cities NWS

High and dry

Meteorologists look for high pressure systems to forecast dry weather. On the maps, a big sprawling high pressure cell expands over Minnesota this weekend, bringing drier breezes and plenty of sunshine.

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NOAA

Winds could gust as high as 35 mph Sunday out of the south, and boost temperatures close to 80 degrees again by late afternoon across southern Minnesota. Excellent drying conditions prevail this weekend across Minnesota.

4th wettest summer on record for Minnesota

You don't need to be a rocket surgeon to know it was one of the wettest summers on record. Statewide it was the 4th wettest summer on record. It was the wettest summer on record in Redwood Falls, 5th wettest in St. Cloud.

20 inches of rain this summer

Much of Minnesota saw over 15 inches of rainfall this summer, and some areas recorded over 22 inches during the June-August period. That's an extra 10 inches of rainfall for many locations, nearly an extra two month's worth of rainfall this summer. Here's the map of summer rainfall from the Midwest Regional Climate Center.

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Midwest Regional Climate Center

The Minnesota Climate Working Group elaborates on this summer's torrential rainfall.

The summer of 2016 was stormy and wet for much of Minnesota. Some places in Pine County saw twelve inches of rain for June alone. For June to August some of the wettest places in the state were Aitkin in Aitkin County with 23.29 inches of rain or 11.60 inches above the 1981-2010 normal. Brownton in McLeod County saw 24.58 inches or 11.78 inches above the 1981-2010 normal. Brainerd in Crow Wing County with 20.69 inches of precipitation or 10.18 inches above normal. Redwood Falls was even wetter with 22.11 inches of precipitation or 11.19 inches above normal. This is the wettest summer on record for Redwood Falls, with 2016 edging 1993 out for first place with 23.34 inches (1993 had 23.08 inches).

Wet September too

The first week of September continued the soggy trend. University of Minnesota climatologist Mark Seeley elaborates on the heavy early September rainfall totals in this week's Weather Talk.

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Wet Start to September:

After a wetter than normal July and August, September is following trend and beginning wetter than normal for many areas of the state thanks in large part to some strong thunderstorms that crossed the state over September 4-7. Several areas of the state have reported over 2 inches of rainfall so far this month. Many climate stations are already reporting rainfall totals which are near the monthly average for September, and some locations have already surpassed the monthly normal rainfall values. A partial list of these locations:

Mabel (Fillmore County) 5.54"

Caledonia (Houston County) 4.69"

Spring Valley (Fillmore County) 4.14"

Spring Grove (Houston County) 4.03"

Lanesboro (Fillmore County) 3.40"

Worthington (Nobles County) 2.86"

Wright (Carlton County) 3.93"

Brainerd (Crow Wing County) 2.90"

Ottertail (Otter Tail County) 2.52"

Eveleth (St Lous County) 3.20"

Pokegama Dam (Itasca County) 3.52"

Ada (Norman County) 2.97"

Roseau (Roseau County) 2.65"

Rare dry week ahead

It's been tough to string together 5 or 6 dry days in a row this summer. Most of us enjoy dry skies from Saturday through next Thursday. A cooler and dry Canadian air mass slides south next week. Highs stay in the October-like 60s Tuesday and Wednesday.

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Custom Weather

2nd longest stretch above 50 degrees?

Wednesday looks like the coolest morning of next week. Temps may dip below the 50-degree mark around 7 am Wednesday for the first time since May 18th. If we hit 49 Wednesday morning, it will be the 2nd longest stretch on record in the Twin Cities.

Looking at the maps, if the urban heat island keep MSP at 50 Wednesday morning we may have a shot at the record of 124 consecutive days at or above 50 degrees in the Twin Cities.

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Facebook

Camp Ripley tornado

Wednesday night's Camp Ripley tornado is a good reminder you don't always need a tornado watch or warning to spawn a brief spin up. Here's more on the isolated EF-1 Camp Ripley tornado from the Minnesota Climate Working Group.

There was only one tornado reported in the United States on September 7, 2016 and it happened to be at Camp Ripley in Morrison County.

A large line of thunderstorms moved eastward across northern and central Minnesota during the evening of September 7. After dark at 10:34pm, an EF1 tornado touched down at Camp Ripley causing damage. The tornado path was seven to eight miles long and 50 yards wide. The tornado lifted a roof off a large two-story apartment-style building and damaged several other structures. Trees and cars also sustained damage and debris was blown into a newly constructed solar panel array, damaging the panels.

Thankfully no injuries were reported.

Active severe Summer of 2016

Unfortunately my hunch last spring we were going to see more severe weather this summer panned out. Chain saws worked overtime for those of you in northern Minnesota. Sump pumps and sandbags were out in full force in the south. I can't even tally the number damaging of bow echoes that have raced across Minnesota this summer.

So far we've tallied 42 preliminary tornado reports in Minnesota this year. That's almost double the 24 reports from last year. Do you live near one of the dots on this map?

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NOAA Storm Prediction Center

It's been a crazy summer for severe weather across the state.

La Nina winter ahead? Not so fast

Many forecasters have been suggesting a La Nina event for this upcoming winter. The latest temperature profiles from the tropical Pacific Ocean and guidance from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center suggest 'ENSO neutral' conditions are more likely this winter.

Overall, ENSO-Neutral conditions are slightly favored (between 55-60%) during the upcoming Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2016-17.

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NOAA

La Nina winters tend to produce colder winter in Minnesota. 'ENSO neutral' winters show less predictive skill. The latest winter outlook form NOAA's Climate Prediction Center favor near or slightly cooler than average temperatures over Minnesota.

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NOAA

I'm not sold on a colder than average winter for Minnesota just yet. But I do think it will be significantly colder than last winter.

Stay tuned.