Brighter skies ahead, Tropical Storm Matthew arrives
This is one of those forecasts you really hope works out right.
What looked like a five-day sunny window across Minnesota earlier this week now clings to two or three days at best.
The atmosphere is stuck in what meteorologists refer to as a blocking pattern. The usual west to east flow of weather systems is stalled.
Low pressure spinning over the Ohio Valley should pull far enough east to bring sunnier skies to Minnesota Thursday and Friday, but it's going to be a close call. Watch the maps as the low actually bounces back westward, or "retrogrades," as the weekend approaches.
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Pesky cloud shield
The visible satellite loop tells the weather story this week. Watch the low pressure system spin aimlessly over southern Michigan. The western edge of the cloud shield grazes Minnesota.
In theory, drier air should erode the cloud deck across Minnesota Thursday. But I'm not as certain about total sunshine as some. I remain hopeful we'll see enough sun Thursday and Friday to brighten spirits and spectators at the Ryder Cup.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's NAM 4 km resolution model evaporates the could cover over most of Minnesota Thursday and Friday. On this map, red means clear skies.
Overall it still looks like we'll see brighter skies Thursday into early Saturday, with a few more clouds than previously expected this weekend.
Tropical Storm Matthew is born
Matthew earned a name today, and continues to develop near the Windward Islands.
Tropical storm force winds and rough seas are lashing Barbados.
The official National Hurricane Center track ramps Matthew up to hurricane strength. Matthew could be a very strong hurricanes as it approaches Jamaica this weekend, and eastern Cuba by Monday.
Sharp right turn?
The vast majority of models still show a sharp right tune by next week. The most recent shift is eastward, and potentially away from the U.S. coastline. But it's still too early to be certain about U.S. impacts.
Wide model spread
Forecasting hurricane tracks a week in advance? Tell me what the Dow will be next Thursday. Check out the model spread over time.
Insurance industry watching closely
One group who's watching every update on Matthew? The insurance industry. Andrew Siffert from Twin Cities-based BMS Group is one of them.
Stay tuned.