Edge of drought: Dryness expanding across Minnesota
Lawn starting to get a little crispy?
Rainfall this month has actually been above average in eastern Minnesota and Wisconsin. But the vast majority of that rain came in the first two weeks of the month. Since then showers have become harder to find, soaking rains rare.
Meanwhile in western Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas, rainfall this month has been scarce. Some locations have recorded barely half an inch this June, typically our wettest month of the year.
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4.39" June rainfall total so far at MSP Airport
+.42" vs. average at MSP this month
.09" GFS model rainfall forecast for MSP Thursday
The latest set of 7-day rainfall projections don't offer much help for giving us a good soaking between now and the 4th of July. Good news for sun seekers. Not so much for farmers and thirsty lawns and shrubs.
Northern Minnesota may fare better with rainfall in the next week, but less than half an inch is likely in the south. Heavy rains favor Kansas and Missouri.
'Drought' returns tomorrow?
Last week's U.S. Drought Monitor continued the trend of abnormally dry (pre-drought) conditions in western Minnesota.
With the continued dryness this week I expect moderate drought to emerge when Thursday's updated drought monitor is released. Look for the yellow zone to expand eastward into at least central Minnesota Thursday.
NOAA's 16-day GFS output has been stingy with rainfall in the past few runs. The overnight run puts out just .87" rainfall for MSP in the next 16 days. If that were to verify, we could be looking at expanding drought across southern Minnesota in the next two weeks.
Forecast: Mostly dry through the 4th of July?
Our dry skies continues today as more summer-like weather returns. A few showers graze southwest Minnesota today, then NOAA's NAM 4 km model tracks a band of patchy showers drifting southward across Minnesota Thursday.
The best chance for decent soaking rains favor the zone around Sioux Falls and northern Minnesota this week.
Dry start to the 4th of July weekend
Behind Thursday's cool front, the next Canadian high pressure cell drifts south across Minnesota Friday.
We enjoy very dry and pleasant weather Friday through Sunday. Temps warm from the 70s toward 80 degrees in the metro and southern Minnesota, a few degrees cooler up north.
NOAA's GFS model still suggests a warm and breezy 4th of July with highs in the mid 80s. The Euro model brings more clouds and chance of showers by fireworks time.
Stay tuned.