80 by Friday? BWCA ice out reports
"Spring is nature's way of saying, 'Let's party!' " - Robin Williams
We're leading charmed weather lives in Minnesota this year. After the 10th 'least miserable' winter on record, our still properly earned spring is running nearly 5 degrees warmer than average since March 1st.
Soaking multi-inch rains have eliminated any talk of dryness. Crops are well ahead of seasonal averages. The landscape is bursting with color. Your long lost neighbors have a spring in their step.
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The weather maps look warmer and drier this week , and it will feel more like like June by Thursday and Friday. Weather tip: Book a table now for that outdoor lunch later this week.
Glancing frontal blow Tuesday
A weak cool front sails south through Minnesota Tuesday. Milder air pushes temps toward 70 degrees ahead of the front.
A band of scattered showers along the tail end of the front clips the metro as it rolls through Wisconsin late afternoon and evening. We enjoy a pleasantly cool air mass Wednesday, as the next warm front gathers in the Dakotas.
Weather perfection?
Most everyone has a different idea of perfect weather. My unscientific survey of Minnesotans in my 30+ years as a weather practitioner here says this week is about as good as it gets for most of us. You just can't draw it up any better for early May in Minnesota.
Metro frost done?
I expect a few more frosty mornings in the northern half of the state, similar to what we observed Monday morning.
Things can always change, but right now the maps I'm looking at suggest we may be frost-free in the metro core and most of southern Minnesota for the rest of the warm season. Here are the GFS model numbers for MSP Airport through May 18th.
Of course longer term daily weather fluctuations features peaks and valleys the next few weeks. Strikes and gutters as The Dude would say. But our lingering warmth seems to have set the tone for what could be a warmer than average summer in Minnesota. The latest 90-day outlook from NOAA splashes a fair amount of red across the Upper Midwest through July.
Ice out underway in BWCA
After a very warm start to March, late March and April cool snaps slowed the rate of ice out in northern Minnesota lately. We now have reports that some of the BWCA lakes are ice free. Most lakes in northern Minnesota are still running about a week ahead of the long term averages for ice out.
You can check ice out on your favorite Minnesota lake here via the Minnesota DNR ice out page. Here's the data for Fall Lake east of Ely at the edge of the BWCAW.
Cold lakes in spring suppress cumulus clouds
Ever wondered why cumulus clouds over land don't also form over big Minnesota lakes on spring days? I didn't think so. But it's pretty cool anyway.
As the strong spring sunlight creates thermals over land, the big cold lakes don;t support that rising air. The result is some pretty clear evidence of cloud free skies over the lakes. Monday's NASA MODIS 1,000-meter resolution shot captures the essence of the 'cumulus free zones' over Minnesota's bigger lakes.
Crops ahead of schedule
Last week's cool wet weather was great for boosting soil moisture, but slowed crop progress a bit. Still, Minnesota crop development is well ahead of the 5-year average, and just slightly behind last springs pace. Here's this week's Minnesota Crop Report.
