Next snow Sunday, 40s and rain next week?

Our Jekyll and Hyde winter continues.

This El Nino-laced winter can't make up it's mind. This week? A steady semi-Arctic chill. A rarity this winter. Not extreme cold by Minnesota standards, but respectably chilly with some negative numbers at night.

Next week?

More mild Pacific breezes as temperatures soar through the 30s, and possibly past 40 degrees. The kicker? Another unseasonably warm storm system blows in next Thursday with more February rain likely. Rain and 45 degrees on February 18th?

Did I just say that out loud?

• 43 degrees NOAA GFS forecast high temp at MSP next Thursday

• 46 degrees Euro (ECMWF) forecast high at MSP next Thursday

Winter rain increasing

I guess we shouldn't be shocked. Minnesota climate experts with the Minnesota Climate Working Group have reported about a 3-fold increase in the frequency of winter rain events in the past 30-40 years in Minnesota. Warmer winters means less winter precipitation is falling as snow, with documented increase in rain and ice.

Climate modeling researchers like Dr. Peter Snyder at the University of Minnesota have run projections that winter snowfall will decrease by as much as a foot on average by the end of this century.

Climate change + El Nino = February rain

This is what happens when you superimpose the strongest El Nino on record over the steadily increasing background hum of climate change.

At the risk of cutting to the end of the forecast chase, take a look at the upper air (500 millibar) GFS map for next Thursday. The jet stream is gone north on a Canadian vacation. The air flow over Minnesota and the northern US directly from the mild Pacific Ocean. Very unusual for mid-February, but a typical balmy spasm of this now record El Nino winter. An early spring break in Kansas City anyone?

Today's latest ECMWF model run goes full on with the notion of an extended Minnesota thaw next week. The Euro cranks out a string of days in the 30s, and pushes 40-degree plus air, and rain into the Twin Cities next Thursday and Friday.

NOAA's GFS model agrees. The latest runs spitting out a rainy 43 degrees at MSP by next Thursday.

This is still pretty far out for total forecast confidence. But keep in mind that models are much better with temperature trends in week 2. When both the GFS and ECMWF sing from the same page, it usually leads to higher confidence. If the models are right, temperatures will run a good 10 to 20 degrees above average across Minnesota next week.

Cold and snow first

Working backwards chronologically for this post, we stay cold in the short term. Temperatures bob around in the teens for highs this week, with lows flirting with either side of zero around sunrise.

A Clipper rides through the eastern Dakotas into Iowa overnight. Western Minnesota towns like Wheaton, Ortonville and Luverne pick up a fresh dusting of snow.

Temps begin to moderate by Sunday, as the next Clipper rides in with what looks like a pretty good chance for accumulating, and potentially plowable snow at this point.

The early read on Sunday's system favors a widespread swath of snow as warmer air pushes toward Minnesota. This one should produce at least a snowy coating, and quite possibly a few inches across most of Minnesota as it sails through from west to east Sunday. This one is cold enough for all snow.

Early spring?

Assuming we get an extended thaw next week, and some rain to melt off a good part of our snow cover, this could be an early spring for Minnesota. It's really tough to stay cold with the higher increasing sun angles and extra incoming solar radiation in late February and early March without significant snow cover. You can add 10 degrees to the daily high temperature with bare ground in late February.

NOAA's long range Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) continues to be rock steady in cranking out much above average temperatures for March across most of  the U.S. and Canada.

A dark red blob of temperatures +4 C (+7.2 F) or warmer draped from Alaska through Canada into Minnesota and the northern U.S. for March?

At this rate we could have ice-free lakes, tulips, daffodils and green grass by late March.

Stay tuned.