November reality check now, near 60 again Sunday?

Welcome back to November.

Cooler northwest winds are sweeping through Minnesota as expected. More typical November chill levels last through Friday and Saturday. Words like frost and freeze return to the forecast as we move toward the weekend.

Call it an 'average front.' That's about as good as we can hope with our cold fronts this fall as temperatures return to near average Friday and Saturday. Watch the blue 'H' slide east as cooler high pressure drifts overhead on the maps this weekend. The next warm front already drifts by as we move into Sunday.

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NOAA

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  • 65 degrees - high temperature at MSP Airport Thursday (at 1:28 pm)

  • +16 degrees - temps vs. average for 1st 5 days of November in the Twin Cities

Cool and dry weather opens the weekend across Minnesota. No tracking snow for Saturday's deer opener this year. Morning minimum temps fall to near freezing for just the second time this year in the metro core Saturday morning.

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NOAA

By Sunday southwest winds return, and temps respond. We could get close to 60 degrees in the southwest metro suburbs Sunday afternoon.

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NOAA

Here's a more detailed breakdown of the bigger forecast picture. Frosty weekend mornings, then temps pushing 10 degrees warmer than average once again early next week.

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Weatherspark - NOAA GFS data

Seeley: Warm start to November caps off record harvest

Our warm November also featured record dew points for this point in November. My MPR colleague and UM climate expert Dr. Mark Seeley has more on our warm start to November in this week's Weather Talk. Here's an early (and exclusive) preview for Updraft readers. As always you can hear more from Mark Friday morning in the 6 am hour on Morning Edition on MPR News stations across Minnesota.

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Topic: Warm Start to November

Very warm conditions prevailed around the state over the first several days of November. At least 15 climate stations have reported a daytime high temperature this month of 70°F or higher, topped by 78°F at Madison (Lac Qui Parle County) on the 3rd. The warmth reached as far north as Hibbing where it reached 64°F on the 3rd, while some western Minnesota observers (Canby, Appleton, and Madison) reported three consecutive afternoons with highs in the 70s F this first week of November which last happened in 1999 and 1975.

High dew points were also noteworthy as MSP tied the record highest dew point on November 4th with a reading of 55°F and broke the record high dew point on November 5th with a reading of 56°F. The high dew points prevented overnight temperatures form dropping to normal values for this time of year, so consequently some climate stations reported new record warm minimum temperatures on November 4th as well including 51°F at Collegeville, 47°F at Park Rapids and Alexandria, and 45°F at International Falls (tied record from 1956 and 2008). Scattered showers brought rainfall amounts ranging from 0.25 to 0.75 inches to parts of the state during the first week of November, following a wet last week of October. Soil moisture has been recharged in many areas of the state with USDA Crop Condition reports documenting that over 80 percent of the state shows adequate to surplus topsoil moisture.

Record crops of corn and soybeans have been harvested and being placed into storage.

Annual Kuehnast lecture November 12th

Here's more on this year's annual Kuehnast lecture at the UM next Thursday.

Topic:  23rd Annual Kuehnast Lecture

The 23rd Annual Kuehnast Endowment Lecture will take place at 3pm on November 12, 2015 in Rm S335 Borlaug Hall on the University of Minnesota St Paul Campus.  This is a no-cost public lecture dedicated to atmospheric and climate sciences.  Our event this year will feature a presentation by Dr. Thomas Peterson, recently retired from the NOAAs National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI) and Center for Weather and Climate (CWC), Asheville, NC.  Dr. Peterson is also current President of the World Meteorological Organizations Commission for Climatology and he was a lead author for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report.

Climate change moving the goal posts on extreme heat

In the Bell Curve we call climate normals, a little shift to the warmer side can produce dramatic effects when it come to extreme heat. More record highs. Fewer record lows. Brian Kahn at Climate Central has more on how climate change is effectively 'moving the goal posts' on record heat.

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The lasting legacy of climate change will be heat. The land, the oceans, all of it. It’s the tie that binds and while theglobal average temperature is the defining metric, the increasing incidence of heat waves and longer lasting extreme heat is how the world will experience it.

All eight papers dealing with extreme heat events in this year’s Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society’s attribution report show a clear climate change signal that made them more likely, more hot or both. In fact, of the 22 studies scientists have submitted to the annual review over the past four years, only one didn’t find that climate change increased the odds or severity of extreme heat.

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WXshift - Climate Central

"​Global warming is the most obvious, well-documented effect of ​climate change,” Stephanie Herring, a climate scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and organizer of this year’s attribution issue, said. “As a result, the signal is very strong so we can more easily detect it amongst noise of natural variability compared to other types of extreme events."

In the case of a strong signal, 2014 stands out as particularly notable. It was the hottest year on record, though this year is on track to top last year’s record (and signs are already pointing to 2016 continuing the record heat parade).

New York: Prepare for several feet of sea level rise

You can't coach "tall." You can't live well "underwater." Climate Central has more on how New York is prepping to contend with the likely scenario of several feet of seal level rise by 2100.

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Climate Central

LaGuardia Airport is about to be rebuilt in New York City, but by the end of the century, fish could be swimming where airplanes once parked at the terminal. That’s because sea levels in the area could rise by as much as 6 feet over the next 75 years, according to new predictions released by the state of New York.

New York State environment officials announced Friday that they’re creating new sea level rise regulations that will help coastal communities build more resilient homes and other buildings that will be better able to withstand storm surges and other flooding made worse by rising seas driven by climate change.

The new regulations will require developers in New York City, along Long Island and on the shores of the Hudson River to prepare for sea levels that could rise between 15 and 75 inches by 2100.  At the far end of that scale, many of the areas hit hard by Hurricane Sandy — the Rockaway Peninsula and the shores of Staten Island, for example — could be underwater.

In addition to increasing temperatures and more frequent extreme weather, rising seas are expected to be among the most destructive effects of climate change. If greenhouse gas emissions are left unchecked, most of the U.S. populationcould be affected by rising seas, submerging some of America’s most famous icons, such as Wall Street, New Orleans and the Everglades.