November Lite: Early whispers of El Nino?
We call it "Wurzer Weather."
That's the name for unseasonably warm weather in the MPR newsroom. MPR News Morning Edition Host Cathy Wurzer likes it warm. "Z" as we like to call her is a happy camper this fall and so far this November.
Today brings another day of unseasonably mild temperatures across Minnesota as our weather pattern continues to scream September.
A November reality check arrives late tomorrow with the next cold front. The longer range forecast whispers El Nino as we stare as a murky (and mild?) December forecast through the long range weather lens in a few weeks.
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Expect increasing shots of seasonably cold air, punctuated by more warm fronts ahead.
+13.3 degrees - temps at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport vs. average so far this November
2008 - last time we saw 70s in November at MSP
1975 - last time we saw three days in the 70s in November at MSP
November Lite
We enjoy another day of November weather bliss for many. Temps today push 70 degrees once again across much of Minnesota. Blue hues gather in North Dakota, a sign of weather changes ahead by Thursday night. Grab that long outdoor lunch again today.
Seasonal reality check
The other weather shoe is never too far away this time of year at 45 degrees north latitude. Our next cold front sweeps across Minnesota Thursday with scattered rain and a clap of thunder. Brisk northwest winds behind the advancing front plunge temperatures back to near average Friday and Saturday.
Yes, our cold fronts are barely average this fall. The next warm front arrives with a breezy Sunday. Temps pushing back into the mid and upper 50s are still a good 10 degrees warmer than average for Nov. 8-9.
Whispers of El Nino already here?
With each passing mild day turned mild week, shades of El Nino begin to weave a tapestry that could become a trend in Minnesota this winter. The Twin Cities National Weather Service agrees with my weather eye, seeing upper air patterns that look suspiciously El Nino.
As I put together my winter forecast this week, I still think El Nino will be the dominant player in our winter weather overall. All of the medium range guidance screams mild.
The University of Maine's Climate Reanalyzer project brings yet anther blob of unseasonably mild air across the Midwest next week.
NOAA's experimental three-week temperature forecast product keeps a mild bias overall for most of the United States through November. Cool in the southwest and mild across the northern U.S.? If it quacks like an El Nino duck.
The raw model output continues to favor temps much above average into late November. Highs in the 50s, and even 60 degrees leading up to a potentially brown Thanksgiving?
Stay tuned.