Hurricane Joaquin models favoring offshore track
Can the European model really be that good?
As forecast models continue to grapple for consensus on the eventual track of Hurricane Joaquin, there is a growing trend. Most of the models seem to be coming more into agreement with the ECMWF model's notion of an easterly track that keeps the powerful and dangerous hurricane out to sea and away from the US coastline. It's still too early to be sure the US will avoid a direct hit from Joaquin, but a distinct shift in that direction has occurred.
In fact the official forecast track from the National Hurricane Center now favors an offshore pass with Joaquin.
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Joaquin has achieved monster Category 4 hurricane status with 130 mph winds as it swirls in the Bahamas.
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
500 PM EDT THU OCT 01 2015
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 JOAQUIN MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 74.4W
ABOUT 15 M....25 KM NW OF CROOKED ISLAND BAHAMAS
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF SAN SALVADOR BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9
Joaquin's eye is clearly visible on this IR rainbow floater loop.
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The euro has been rock solid with the notion of an easterly storm track for the past two days, even as the majority of other model ensemble members showed a left hook into the U.S. coast.
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NOAA's National Hurricane Center is more optimistic about an easterly path that spares the U.S. coast.
NOAA's recently updated GFS model had been one of the leaders in predicting a U.S. landfall over the past two days. Today the GFS did a sharp about face, and is much closer to the Euro's path steering Joaquin safely out to sea.
It's still to early to breathe a huge sigh of relief. But if current forecast trends come to pass, we may all be thankful for an eventual offshore track for Joaquin. And many will ask why the best U.S. forecast models grossly under performed compared the the ECMWF model in recent days.
Is the Euro really that much better?
Stay tuned.