Tropical Storm Joaquin may threaten east coast
Double tropical trouble is brewing in the Atlantic. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Hurricane Center is a busy place this week.
A tightly wrapped circulation in the low levels of the atmosphere east of the Bahamas has blossomed into Tropical Storm Joaquin.
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Another tropical system named 99L is over Florida. You can see both systems on NOAA's rainbow infrared satellite loop below. 99L is producing thunderstorms over Florida while Joaquin revs up east of the Bahamas.
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Joaquin is moving over warm water and through a favorable upper level wind field over the next 48 hours.
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Further strengthening is likely, and Joaquin will most likely be a strong tropical storm or possibly a hurricane by the weekend off the U.S. east coast.
Here's the official NHC track.
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There is higher than average uncertainty regarding Joaquin's eventual track. The spaghetti models are all over the place with Joaquin's eventual track. Projections range from a U.S. landfall along the east coast to steering the storm harmlessly out into the North Atlantic.
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Intensity forecast for Joaquin also show a high degree of variability. Remember, hurricane intensity is harder to forecast than the storm track. Intensity fluctuates much more quickly as storms cycle rapidly over warm water and in changing wind shear environments.
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Double trouble: 99L soaking Florida
As Joaquin revs up off the Bahamas, 99L is already drenching Florida with waves of heavy tropical downpours.
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The overnight model run from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts shifted Joaquin's track east and keeps it away from the U.S. east coast. But it brings 99L along the eastern U.S.
Either scenario produces heavy-and potentially life threatening flooding rains into eastern U.S. this weekend.
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It is too early to be precise as to what eventual track Joaquin will take, and the storm's eventual intensity. Persons along the entire U.S. eastern seaboard, and even cities well inland cities like Philadelphia need to be prepared for heavy rainfall.