Seasonal reality check this week

Best. Summer. Ever.

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Beautiful late September Sunday on Lake Minnetonka. Paul Huttner/MPR News

One more refreshing swim in still comfy Lake Minnetonka waters under sunny 82 degree skies on Sept. 27?

Priceless.

The cherry on top of our amazing summer? Sunday night's rare supermoon total lunar eclipse.

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  • 82 degrees high temperature Sunday at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport

  • 11th day this month with highs above 80 degrees at MSP

  • +6.1 degrees temps vs. average for September at MSP

Top 5 warmest September?

So far this month the average temperature at MSP Airport is 68.8 degrees. If September ended today it would tie the warmest September on record. Today's cool front will bump us from that lofty perch, but a top 5 warm September finish is still possible. With today's high of 72 degrees (+5 degrees vs. average) already locked in at midnight, a top 10 warmest September appears to be a lock.

Here's a look at the September record book from the Minnesota Climatology Working Group.

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Minnesota Climate Working Group

September reality check

Today's cool front brings a few scattered showers as it sags south. Cooler, more seasonal Canadian high pressure noses south into Minnesota this week and bumps temperatures back to reality.

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Bye-bye 80s

I'd say there's a 75 percent chance Sunday was the last 80+ degree days of 2015 for the metro. I'm convinced we'll see more 70s, but with seasonably cool weather ahead for the next week 80 degrees will be hard to come by as we move into October.

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NOAA

No whining allowed this fall or winter. We've just enjoyed the best spring, summer, and start to fall I can remember.

Here's a more detailed look at a spectacular, but cooler transition into October this week. Don't be shocked to see some frost in the north metro suburbs by late this week.

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Weatherspark - Euro data for MSP

El Nino favors milder winter

The Godzilla El Nino in the tropical pacific continues to impress.

Astute climate watchers already know the odds favor a milder winter this year across Minnesota and the Upper Midwest. NOAA's Climate Forecast System models continue to crank out an impressive warm zone from Minnesota north into Canada this winter.

The cooler and potentially wetter signal across the southern U.S. and Mexico is also an El Nino signal.

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NOAA

Enjoy our transition into fall!