A Goldilocks summer, Florida watching Erika

Smoky Summer

It's been a great summer in Minnesota. A Goldilocks summer. Not too hot. Not too cold.

Just right.

But one semi-persistent feature of our otherwise gorgeous summer has been the drift of elevated smoke plumes of varying thickness from western wildfires. It's now the worst wildfire season on record in the state of Washington. Thick plumes of smoke have been injected high into the atmosphere. Westerly mid- and upper-level winds have pushed the dispersion plumes east across Minnesota and the Upper Midwest.

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Another white-tinted sky above the Land of Sky Blue Waters today.

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Elevated smoke tints the sky white above the southwest metro Wednesday. Paul Huttner/MPR News

Over 70 large uncontained fires continue to flare out west according to the USFS.

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USFS

Our latest smoke plume covers a big chunk of the central U.S. according to NOAA's smoke mapper.

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NOAA

Expect periods of smoke to remain in the forecast. Peak fire season in California still lies ahead.

State Fair forecast: Pretty typical

A little sun. A few showers. Some days around 90 degrees with high humidity? In other words, a pretty typical State Fair forecast. Thursday looks mostly dry. Showers and a few thundertorms graze the metro from the south Thursday night. The latest storm tracks keep the bulk of the heaviest rains just south of the metro to along the I-90 corridor.

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NOAA

Here's a look at updated rainfall totals. A close shave for the southern Twin Cities?

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NOAA

Friday looks cool, damp and cloudy. The weekend looks like summer with highs in the 80s and plenty of sun. Temperatures make a run at 90 with tropical humidity levels returning next week.

Sweat on a stick.

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Weaterhspark

Climate Cast live at the State Fair

Please join us at the Minnesota State Fair Thursday at 10 a.m. for a special live one-hour Climate Cast from the MPR booth at the corner of Judson and Nelson. Kerri Miller and I will interview University of St. Thomas climate expert Dr. John Abraham about the top climate science stories of 2015. We'll also take a look ahead at the upcoming winter forecast in light of what looks like one of the biggest El Niño events on record. And of course, we'll answer questions from the live audience.

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Mark Seeley, Paul Huttner and Cathy Wurzer at the Fair in 2013.

Erika aims at southeast U.S.

Any way you roll the spaghetti model dice, scary numbers keep coming up for the southeast U.S. The latest Erika tracks favor a hurricane just off Florida's east coast by Monday.

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NOAA

The storm tracks favor a re-curving storm just offshore. That's far too close for comfort at this point.

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tropicaltidbits.com

Stay tuned as Erika fluctuates in intensity, and model tracks are updated in the next few days.