Summer’s finest? Aurora watch

We earn our summers in Minnesota.

Yes, many of us love the winter months. But this time of year holds a special place in our weather hearts. Summer can seem like a race against time at this latitude.

We pack a suddenly shrinking calendar with a cascade of summertime events. Summer festivals. Trips to the lake. The Fourth of July already in sight? How did that happen??

The occasional do nothing glorious summer day? Priceless.

• +1.4 degrees temperature vs. average so far in June at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport

• 4.12 inches rainfall at MSP in June (+.74")

• 80 percent of Minnesota's corn crop rated in good to excellent condition

It looks that way this summer. It's been the perfect mix of rainfall and warmth. Minnesota's crops look excellent according to this week's Minnesota Crop Report.

Minnesota’s corn condition rated 80 percent good to excellent, up 3 percentage points from last week. With almost the entire soybean crop emerged, soybean condition rated 76 percent good to excellent. Almost one-third of the barley crop was in or beyond the heading stage and barley condition rated 63 percent good to excellent. Fifty-five percent of the oat acreage was in or beyond the heading stage, 2 weeks ahead of last year and 8 days ahead of the five-year average.

Oat condition rated 81 percent good to excellent. Twenty-six percent of the spring wheat had headed, 2 days behind average. Spring wheat condition rated 76 percent good to excellent. Dry edible beans were 97 percent emerged, 11 days ahead of last year. Dry edible bean condition rated 63 percent good to excellent.

Potato condition rated 85 percent good to excellent. Sunflower condition rated 48 percent good to excellent, up 4 percentage points from last week. Sugarbeet condition rated 81 percent good to excellent, unchanged from last week.

The first cutting of alfalfa hay was 75 percent complete, 11 days ahead of last year and 3 days ahead of the five-year average. All hay condition rated 70 percent good to excellent and pasture condition rated 77 percent good to excellent, both up 2 percentage points from the previous week.

Forecast: Status quo

Our seemingly endless string of blissful near 80 degree days continues. A few isolated showers may sprout up over Minnesota, but most of the heavier rains stay south of Minnesota and favor the Ohio Valley.

Thursday's severe risk also stays south.

All in all another great week of summer weather lies ahead.

 NOAA: Another aurora storm?

ANOTHER STORM FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY

The coronal mass ejection that erupted June 22 in conjunction with the R2 solar flare has been modeled and arrival is expected June 24 at 2300 UT  (7 pm EDT).  This timing bodes well for aurora watchers in North America.

As for the expected intensity, SWPC is continuing to analyze the event and will update the forecast when this analysis is complete.  Stay tuned here for updates.

That's the latest word from NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center on the chances for more auroras overnight into Thursday morning. The big question is will the show happen in Canada or the "auroral oval" make it far enough south into Minnesota?

Predicting the precise locations and intensity of auroras is still part science, part art.

Here's the latest thinking from spaceweather.com

NOAA forecasters estimate a 80% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on June 24th when another CME is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. The intensity of the storm is hard to predict. It could range from mild to severe.

It will be worth a look tonight to see if northern lights appear. The increasingly bright waxing moon will limit viewing. I have my doubts we'll see a show comparable to Monday's nights amazing display.