Flash drought: From 5 to 88% coverage in one week

It's official. Nearly all of Minnesota is now in drought.

Moderate drought coverage went from 5 to 88 percent in today's updated U.S. Drought Monitor.

I've been talking and writing for much of the winter about my concerns that Minnesota was biased for spring drought this year. I've never seen a change that rapid in the U.S. Drought Monitor coverage for such a big chunk of Minnesota. A big chunk of the Midwest saw a 1-class "degradation" as the result lack of adequate fall and winter precipitation.

Soils are snow-free and bone-dry in most of Minnesota now.

Spring outlook favors dry bias

After a string of recent (extremely) wet springs in Minnesota it would be easy to dismiss the current dry state of affairs. Of course a pattern change could bring heavy spring rains in quickly the next two to three months.

But as I've written before there are some signs a dry bias may continue this spring. El Niño springs do favor 20 to 50 percent less rainfall on average in the Upper Midwest. Looking at the persistence of hemispheric jet stream patterns, my spidey weather senses tell me dryness may be the favored bias this spring.

NOAA today seems to agree. Here's Thursday's updated seasonal drought outlook which favors the notion that the current drought will persist or deepen across the Upper Midwest this spring.

University of Minnesota climate specialist and MPR colleague Dr. Mark Seeley points out that not all years that start dry remain that way.

Here's an early preview from this week's Weather Talk which goes up Friday.

Topic:  The New Seasonal Climate Outlook

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center released a new seasonal climate outlook on Thursday, March 19th.  For the Western Great Lakes Region, including Minnesota it calls for a warmer and drier than normal April-June period. This outlooks diminishes any possible threat of spring flooding on Minnesota rivers, but it also exacerbates an already exceptionally dry year so far, with over 88 percent of the state landscape in moderate drought according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.  However before we get to pessimistic about moisture for this spring and summer, let's look at history's lesson.  Of the 25 years that brought the driest first three months (Jan-Mar) in Minnesota, fully half of them produced a wetter than  normal April through June period, and other 7 produced normal rainfall for the April through June period.   So 68 percent of the time the state was saved from early spring drought by adequate rainfall over the late spring and early summer.  Only roughly 30 percent of the time did early spring drought persist into the summer months, and the most recent case for this was way back in 1987.  

By the way, Mark has updated his excellent Minnesota Weather Almanac in the second edition. Here's more.

Topic: Second Edition of The Minnesota Weather Almanac

Minnesota Historical Society Press has released the Second Edition of the Minnesota Weather Almanac. It is now available to order at their website.

It is also available from Amazon, as well as Barnes and Noble. I will be appearing at Micawber's Books in the St. Anthony Park Neighborhood of St. Paul on the evening of April 2, 2015 at 7 p.m. to talk about it and share some stories.  If you can come, please do. If not, there will be other bookstore events later in the year.

Milder Friday, chilly weekend

Friday feels like spring as the spring equinox arrives at 5:45 p.m. CDT. A cool front slides south this weekend for a chilly first weekend of spring.

Here's a closer breakdown of the next week. I'm keeping an eye on a potential wintry mix for Sunday. A more meaningful rain likely arrives next Tuesday and Wednesday?

Enjoy Friday!