Warmest day in 3 weeks; NOAA/NASA to call 2014 warmest on record

Pacific breezes are blowing again across Minnesota. Thursday's warmth comes after the coldest stretch of  weather so far this winter that included seven consecutive sub-zero mornings.

Insert sigh of relief here.

• 35 degrees high at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport Thursday (at 3:59 pm)

• Warmest day since Christmas -- last time we hit 35 degrees in the metro (3 weeks ago)

The next surge of warmth moves in Friday night and Saturday. Looking for that cheap last minute spring vacation? How about a six-hour drive south on Interstate 35 to beautiful downtown Kansas City Saturday?

Weather systems continue to zip along in the zonal (west-east) air flow across the Upper Midwest. The next batch of fronts brings a wintry mix to northern Minnesota, and more mild air to the south.

The European Centre for Medium Range Forecasts model pretty much nailed Thursday's high of 35 degrees in the Twin Cities metro area. Now the Euro cranks out a temperature of 40 degrees at 1 p.m. Saturday. The second half of our January thaw?

The longer-range forecast suggests a pretty typical mix of winter ups and downs, but nothing too arctic.

Enjoy the milder days ahead.

NASA/NOAA: Making the call on 2014 warmth

Last week I wrote about the unusual probability of NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration holding a joint press conference to announce their surface temperature data sets show 2014 was the warmest year on record globally.

That press conference happens Friday. Here's a preview of the likely data from Climate Nexus.

Re: NOAA and NASA to declare 2014 the hottest year on record

 

This Friday, NOAA and NASA will officially declare 2014 as the hottest year in 134 years of record keeping, with an expected annual global temperature 0.68°C above the 20th century average according to NOAA’s dataset. 

In 2014, seven out of 12 months tied or topped previous monthly global temperature records. Oceans in particular experienced record warmth, with seven consecutive months—May through November—setting new records for surface ocean heat.  Most importantly, 2014 sets the new global temperature record in the absence of an El Niño, a phenomenon which raises global temperature. Many of the previous hottest years on record have occurred during El Niño years, including 2010 and 2005, which now share the record for second hottest year. 

As for the U.S., 2014 saw five new monthly heat records and was the 18th year in a row where the nationwide annual temperature average was hotter than usual. And Alaska, Arizona, California, and Nevada each had their warmest year on record. Notably, California’s annual average temperature was an amazing 2.3°C (4.1°F) above the 20th century average, shattering the old record of 1.3°C (2.3°F) by 1°C.

The record heat in 2014 is just the latest development as global warming turns up the heat at an alarming rate. February 1985 was the last month where global temperature fell below the 20th century monthly average, making December 2014 the 358th consecutive month where the combined global land and ocean surface temperature was above average. Each of the last three decades has been much warmer than the decade before.

Seeley: Topsy turvy weather as usual

University of Minnesota climate expert and MPR contributor Mark Seeley has some excellent insight and perspective as usual on Minnesota's wildly average winter so far, and on the bigger picture of 2014. Here's an exclusive early preview of this week's Weather Talk.

As always listen for Mark's insightful comments on MPR News stations at 6:40 a.m. Friday on Morning Edition with Cathy Wurzer.

Topic: Warm Temperatures to Balance Out January

Following a cold first half of the month, it appears warm temperatures followed by moderating temperatures may prevail for the balance of the month, classically averaging things out for the state. During the first half of January most places reported mean temperature values that ranged from 6 to 10°F colder than normal, with some extreme values of -35°F at Cook, -33°F at Embarrass, and -30°F at Camp Norris on the 13th. The dominance of cold has not brought a great deal of snowfall either. Most observers have reported less than normal snowfall this month, with the exception being International Falls which has received close to 15 inches.

The balance of the month looks to have more days with above normal temperatures or near normal temperatures. It may be that the coldest weather of the 2014-2015 season is behind us.

Topic: Comments on 2014 Climate Disparities

Imbedded in much of the discussion about climate change in recent years is an important characteristic change in geographic and temporal variability of climate attributes like temperature and precipitation. In simple terms the variability of these features is becoming greater. To illustrate this we need only look at the disparities in the 2014 climate signature.

-Average temperatures on both land and ocean globally were the highest ever measured since 1880 according to NOAA and NASA analysis. It is further noteworthy that this took place without the presence of an El Nino episode.

-For the USA, 2014 temperature ranked as the 87th warmest of the past 119 years, and was the 18th consecutive year with above normal mean annual temperature.

-Also for the USA, 2014 precipitation ranked as the 81st wettest of the past 119 years, and 6th wettest year in history for the states of Michigan and Wisconsin.

-For Minnesota, 2014 temperature ranked as the 22nd coldest year of the past 119 years, and coldest year since 1996. This cold temperature signal was heavily weighted to the February through April period which ranked as 8th coldest since 1895, and to the very cold November, which ranked 11th coldest since 1895.

-For Minnesota 2014 precipitation ranked as 94th wettest since 1895, ending up wetter than normal mostly because June was the wettest single month in state history and April was the 6th wettest in state history.

Buckle up. Here comes 2015.